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Stat models: Points Box Elo

Net point-differential Box Elo from points created plus points prevented. An on-floor team-rate impact: how the team's rate of this event moves with the player on the floor, adjusted for everyone else there. It is not the player's own count.

Box form. Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play.

Family Lineup RAPM Box Elo Box Elo sides
Points Points Lineup RAPM (RAPM Overall) Points Box Elo offense · defense
Threes not published for 2017-2018 Threes Box Elo offense · defense
Assists not published for 2017-2018 Assists Box Elo offense · defense
OReb not published for 2017-2018 OReb Box Elo
DReb not published for 2017-2018 DReb Box Elo
Stocks not published for 2017-2018 Stocks Box Elo offense · defense
Turnovers not published for 2017-2018 Turnovers Box Elo ball security · forcing

Each family is shown in every form its season publishes, side by side: Lineup forms read on-court possessions from play-by-play, Box forms read game team totals spread by minutes, so they cannot separate teammates and are meant for seasons without play-by-play; RAPM is one regularized regression over the season, Elo online game-by-game updates. The Lineup form opens by default where the season has one. A season's held-out comparison of the two is information below, never a switch.

All columns in the players browser

2,746 player-seasons with a Points Box Elo rating and at least 500 possessions. Seasons that do not publish this form have no row here.

# Player Team Conf GP MPG Poss Pts Box Elo
1 Kia Nurse UConn American 35 33.2 3,028 68.5
2 Crystal Dangerfield UConn American 33 28.9 2,548 65.1
3 Napheesa Collier UConn American 35 28.7 2,571 64.3
4 Gabby Williams UConn American 34 26.8 2,414 55.8
5 Kalani Brown Baylor Big 12 35 29.6 2,397 51.6
6 Katie Lou Samuelson UConn American 31 30.2 2,316 51.5
7 Blair Schaefer Mississippi State SEC 38 32.3 3,308 51.1
8 Victoria Vivians Mississippi State SEC 38 31.2 3,258 50.5
9 Jackie Young Notre Dame ACC 38 34.4 3,903 49.7
10 Azura Stevens UConn American 35 20.8 1,915 49.5
11 Arike Ogunbowale Notre Dame ACC 38 34.3 3,892 49.4
12 Lauren Cox Baylor Big 12 34 30.2 2,508 48.2
13 Marina Mabrey Notre Dame ACC 38 34.3 3,966 47.9
14 Alexis Morris Baylor Big 12 34 26.2 2,061 47.9
15 Kristy Wallace Baylor Big 12 29 30.0 2,061 47.1
16 Teaira McCowan Mississippi State SEC 38 30.3 3,223 46.9
17 Sabrina Ionescu Oregon Pac-12 37 35.9 4,024 46.6
18 Roshunda Johnson Mississippi State SEC 38 29.8 3,103 46.3
19 Megan Walker UConn American 30 15.4 1,296 41.7
20 Juicy Landrum Baylor Big 12 34 21.5 1,708 40.9
21 Natalie Chou Baylor Big 12 25 23.5 1,422 40.5
22 Brooke McCarty Texas Big 12 34 31.9 3,455 40.2
23 Lexie Brown Duke ACC 33 35.3 2,744 40.1
24 Morgan William Mississippi State SEC 38 25.1 2,679 39.7
25 Jessica Shepard Notre Dame ACC 38 29.3 3,283 39.1
26 Dekeiya Cohen Baylor Big 12 32 28.0 2,269 38.0
27 Ariel Atkins Texas Big 12 35 27.7 3,094 37.8
28 Madison Guebert South Dakota State Summit 28 31.2 2,587 37.8
29 Jessica Lindstrom Green Bay Horizon 32 33.0 2,244 37.6
30 Maite Cazorla Oregon Pac-12 36 32.6 3,698 37.0
31 DiDi Richards Baylor Big 12 33 18.1 1,316 36.1
32 Kathryn Westbeld Notre Dame ACC 37 26.3 2,850 36.0
33 Macy Miller South Dakota State Summit 28 28.5 2,367 35.4
34 Lexi Bando Oregon Pac-12 30 26.2 2,392 35.2
35 Kelli Hayes UCLA Pac-12 35 23.5 2,399 34.7
36 Allie LeClaire Green Bay Horizon 32 31.7 2,192 34.5
37 Bianca Jackson South Carolina SEC 36 30.3 3,122 34.3
38 Ruthy Hebard Oregon Pac-12 36 30.6 3,422 34.0
39 Lashann Higgs Texas Big 12 35 25.0 2,831 33.3
40 Jazzmun Holmes Mississippi State SEC 38 14.9 1,548 32.9
41 Nicki Ekhomu Florida State ACC 32 27.0 2,250 32.5
42 Leaonna Odom Duke ACC 33 30.0 2,432 32.3
43 Kelsey Mitchell Ohio State Big Ten 35 35.9 4,197 32.2
44 Caitlyn Hibner Green Bay Horizon 28 24.7 1,445 31.6
45 Ellie Thompson South Dakota State Summit 28 23.1 1,883 31.3
46 Cierra Dillard Buffalo Bulls MAC 30 32.1 2,583 31.2
47 Satou Sabally Oregon Pac-12 37 24.4 2,726 31.2
48 Erin Mathias Duke ACC 33 29.4 2,296 31.1
49 Tyasha Harris South Carolina SEC 36 33.6 3,410 30.8
50 Jenny Roy Belmont OVC 29 32.7 3,198 30.7

Points: Box vs Lineup, NCAAW 2017-2018

Points Lineup RAPM Points Box Elo
Players rated (at least 300 possessions) 3,349 3,087
Held-out correlation with the segment margin - -
Share of rating variance explained by team 0.23 (chance 0.12, 3349 players) 0.86 (chance 0.11, 3087 players)

No held-out comparison is recorded for points in 2017-2018. Team share: from this page's rows (team of the season); a Box form near its team's share cannot tell teammates apart.

One point per player with both forms and at least 500 possessions; size by possessions; selecting a point opens the player.

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