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Stat models: Points Box Elo

Net point-differential Box Elo from points created plus points prevented. An on-floor team-rate impact: how the team's rate of this event moves with the player on the floor, adjusted for everyone else there. It is not the player's own count.

Box form. Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play.

Family Lineup RAPM Box Elo Box Elo sides
Points Points Lineup RAPM (RAPM Overall) Points Box Elo offense · defense
Threes not published for 2019-2020 Threes Box Elo offense · defense
Assists not published for 2019-2020 Assists Box Elo offense · defense
OReb not published for 2019-2020 OReb Box Elo
DReb not published for 2019-2020 DReb Box Elo
Stocks not published for 2019-2020 Stocks Box Elo offense · defense
Turnovers not published for 2019-2020 Turnovers Box Elo ball security · forcing

Each family is shown in every form its season publishes, side by side: Lineup forms read on-court possessions from play-by-play, Box forms read game team totals spread by minutes, so they cannot separate teammates and are meant for seasons without play-by-play; RAPM is one regularized regression over the season, Elo online game-by-game updates. The Lineup form opens by default where the season has one. A season's held-out comparison of the two is information below, never a switch.

All columns in the players browser

2,687 player-seasons with a Points Box Elo rating and at least 500 possessions. Seasons that do not publish this form have no row here.

# Player Team Conf GP MPG Poss Pts Box Elo
1 Ryan Woolridge Gonzaga WCC 33 32.7 3,636 31.9
2 Joel Ayayi Gonzaga WCC 33 29.3 3,231 31.8
3 Corey Kispert Gonzaga WCC 33 33.0 3,657 31.3
4 Admon Gilder Gonzaga WCC 33 25.6 2,902 28.7
5 Trey Landers Dayton A-10 29 29.3 2,679 28.2
6 Obi Toppin Dayton A-10 29 31.3 2,982 27.8
7 Rodney Chatman Dayton A-10 29 26.3 2,504 27.4
8 Jake Toolson BYU WCC 30 33.7 3,421 27.4
9 Filip Petrusev Gonzaga WCC 33 26.0 2,840 26.5
10 Jalen Crutcher Dayton A-10 28 33.4 3,041 26.3
11 Marcus Garrett Kansas Big 12 31 32.2 3,000 25.6
12 Xavier Tillman Michigan State Big Ten 31 32.1 3,063 25.5
13 Payton Pritchard Oregon Pac-12 31 36.6 3,568 25.5
14 Drew Timme Gonzaga WCC 33 20.5 2,240 25.5
15 TJ Haws BYU WCC 30 32.6 3,331 25.5
16 Ochai Agbaji Kansas Big 12 31 33.3 3,046 24.7
17 Devon Dotson Kansas Big 12 30 34.9 3,143 24.5
18 Alex Barcello BYU WCC 30 30.4 3,080 23.8
19 Mitch Ballock Creighton Big East 30 35.9 3,312 23.6
20 Johnny McCants New Mexico State WAC 31 25.7 1,274 23.3
21 Cassius Winston Michigan State Big Ten 30 32.7 3,039 23.2
22 Isaiah Tisdale East Tennessee State Southern 32 30.1 2,925 23.0
23 Ryan Mikesell Dayton A-10 29 26.6 2,502 22.9
24 Aaron Henry Michigan State Big Ten 30 29.1 2,710 22.9
25 Ty-Shon Alexander Creighton Big East 30 34.7 3,210 22.9
26 Ibi Watson Dayton A-10 29 22.5 2,145 22.7
27 Jonah Radebaugh Northern Colorado Big Sky 31 37.7 2,930 22.7
28 Matthew Hurt Duke ACC 31 20.5 2,059 22.4
29 Marcus Zegarowski Creighton Big East 30 34.5 3,219 22.2
30 Anthony Lamb Vermont America East 29 31.3 2,700 22.1
31 Gabe Brown Michigan State Big Ten 31 21.9 2,122 21.9
32 Matt Johnson II Northern Colorado Big Sky 31 29.7 2,397 21.9
33 C.J. Bobbitt New Mexico State WAC 31 18.8 831 21.6
34 Trent Harris Northern Colorado Big Sky 31 25.7 2,101 21.5
35 Daivien Williamson East Tennessee State Southern 32 28.0 2,781 21.5
36 Udoka Azubuike Kansas Big 12 31 27.7 2,498 21.3
37 Josh Green Arizona Pac-12 29 30.7 2,952 21.2
38 Tray Boyd III East Tennessee State Southern 32 26.6 2,651 21.1
39 Eli Brooks Michigan Big Ten 30 32.0 2,758 21.1
40 Ivan Aurrecoechea New Mexico State WAC 31 24.2 1,116 21.0
41 Trevelin Queen New Mexico State WAC 26 27.5 1,031 20.9
42 Stef Smith Vermont America East 29 28.3 2,458 20.6
43 Jordan Goldwire Duke ACC 31 24.1 2,284 20.5
44 Will Richardson Oregon Pac-12 31 30.3 3,043 20.4
45 Malik Fitts Saint Mary's WCC 31 34.5 2,947 20.3
46 Tevin Brown Murray State OVC 30 37.3 3,115 20.3
47 Everett Duncan Vermont America East 29 28.7 2,540 19.9
48 Bo Hodges East Tennessee State Southern 31 30.2 2,752 19.9
49 Connor Harding BYU WCC 30 22.6 2,330 19.9
50 Anthony Mathis Oregon Pac-12 31 23.5 2,314 19.8

Points: Box vs Lineup, NCAAM 2019-2020

Points Lineup RAPM Points Box Elo
Players rated (at least 300 possessions) 3,468 2,959
Held-out correlation with the segment margin - -
Share of rating variance explained by team 0.14 (chance 0.10, 3468 players) 0.82 (chance 0.11, 2959 players)

No held-out comparison is recorded for points in 2019-2020. Team share: from this page's rows (team of the season); a Box form near its team's share cannot tell teammates apart.

One point per player with both forms and at least 500 possessions; size by possessions; selecting a point opens the player.

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