🐻⬇️🏀

Stat models: Points Box Elo

Net point-differential Box Elo from points created plus points prevented. An on-floor team-rate impact: how the team's rate of this event moves with the player on the floor, adjusted for everyone else there. It is not the player's own count.

Box form. Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play.

Family Lineup RAPM Box Elo Box Elo sides
Points Points Lineup RAPM (RAPM Overall) Points Box Elo offense · defense
Threes not published for 2018-2019 Threes Box Elo offense · defense
Assists not published for 2018-2019 Assists Box Elo offense · defense
OReb not published for 2018-2019 OReb Box Elo
DReb not published for 2018-2019 DReb Box Elo
Stocks not published for 2018-2019 Stocks Box Elo offense · defense
Turnovers not published for 2018-2019 Turnovers Box Elo ball security · forcing

Each family is shown in every form its season publishes, side by side: Lineup forms read on-court possessions from play-by-play, Box forms read game team totals spread by minutes, so they cannot separate teammates and are meant for seasons without play-by-play; RAPM is one regularized regression over the season, Elo online game-by-game updates. The Lineup form opens by default where the season has one. A season's held-out comparison of the two is information below, never a switch.

All columns in the players browser

2,921 player-seasons with a Points Box Elo rating and at least 500 possessions. Seasons that do not publish this form have no row here.

# Player Team Conf GP MPG Poss Pts Box Elo
1 Corey Kispert Gonzaga WCC 37 26.1 2,507 41.4
2 Zach Norvell Jr. Gonzaga WCC 37 30.7 2,967 39.6
3 Kyle Guy Virginia Cavaliers ACC 38 35.4 3,540 38.9
4 Josh Perkins Gonzaga WCC 37 31.3 2,947 37.2
5 Ty Jerome Virginia Cavaliers ACC 37 33.9 3,314 36.9
6 Rui Hachimura Gonzaga WCC 37 30.2 2,908 36.3
7 Brandon Clarke Gonzaga WCC 37 28.1 2,738 35.8
8 Matt Mooney Texas Tech Big 12 38 31.0 2,683 34.2
9 Davide Moretti Texas Tech Big 12 38 31.6 2,689 33.6
10 Jarrett Culver Texas Tech Big 12 38 32.5 2,790 32.9
11 Zion Williamson Duke ACC 33 30.0 2,946 32.9
12 Cassius Winston Michigan State Big Ten 39 33.5 4,219 32.9
13 Corey Davis Jr. Houston American 37 33.0 3,300 32.1
14 Bryce Brown Auburn - 40 32.0 2,134 31.9
15 Galen Robinson JR Houston American 37 29.9 2,855 31.9
16 De'Andre Hunter Virginia Cavaliers ACC 38 32.5 3,285 31.7
17 Payton Pritchard Oregon Ducks Pac-12 38 35.6 3,602 31.7
18 Kihei Clark Virginia Cavaliers ACC 38 26.8 2,590 31.3
19 RJ Barrett Duke ACC 38 35.3 3,766 30.8
20 Armoni Brooks Houston American 37 30.7 3,035 30.7
21 Jared Harper Auburn - 40 32.9 2,082 29.9
22 Carsen Edwards Purdue Boilermakers Big Ten 36 35.4 4,051 29.8
23 Cam Reddish Duke ACC 36 29.7 3,013 29.7
24 Luke Maye North Carolina ACC 36 30.9 2,263 29.3
25 Cameron Johnson North Carolina ACC 36 29.9 2,191 28.8
26 Matt McQuaid Michigan State Big Ten 36 31.4 3,528 28.7
27 Terance Mann Florida State ACC 37 31.7 2,887 28.3
28 Nate Hinton Houston American 37 19.2 1,971 28.3
29 Braxton Key Virginia Cavaliers ACC 38 19.8 2,045 28.2
30 Ryan Cline Purdue Boilermakers Big Ten 36 33.8 3,855 28.0
31 Tre Jones Duke ACC 36 34.2 3,408 27.9
32 Kenny Williams North Carolina ACC 36 30.0 2,173 27.6
33 Kenny Goins Michigan State Big Ten 39 30.3 3,743 27.4
34 Admiral Schofield Tennessee SEC 37 31.8 3,226 27.2
35 Geno Crandall Gonzaga WCC 28 18.4 1,379 27.0
36 Jordan Caroline Nevada Wolf Pack Mountain West 33 35.5 3,114 27.0
37 Chuma Okeke Auburn - 37 29.0 1,860 26.9
38 Tommy Kuhse Saint Mary's WCC 33 26.7 1,023 26.8
39 Jordan Bone Tennessee SEC 37 32.9 3,232 26.6
40 Fletcher Magee Wofford Southern 35 31.4 3,049 26.5
41 Jordan Ford Saint Mary's WCC 33 36.8 1,489 26.4
42 Brandone Francis Texas Tech Big 12 38 24.1 2,084 26.4
43 Coby White North Carolina ACC 35 28.5 2,162 26.3
44 Jayvon Graves Buffalo MAC 36 24.9 2,697 26.2
45 Mamadi Diakite Virginia Cavaliers ACC 38 21.8 2,156 26.2
46 Ahmed Hill Virginia Tech Hokies ACC 35 35.3 3,358 26.1
47 Zavier Simpson Michigan Big Ten 37 33.9 2,968 25.9
48 Ignas Brazdeikis Michigan Big Ten 37 29.6 2,615 25.9
49 Justin Robinson Virginia Tech Hokies ACC 23 31.0 2,107 25.8
50 Jordan Poole Michigan Big Ten 37 33.1 2,853 25.7

Points: Box vs Lineup, NCAAM 2018-2019

Points Lineup RAPM Points Box Elo
Players rated (at least 300 possessions) 3,519 3,179
Held-out correlation with the segment margin - -
Share of rating variance explained by team 0.16 (chance 0.11, 3519 players) 0.79 (chance 0.10, 3179 players)

No held-out comparison is recorded for points in 2018-2019. Team share: from this page's rows (team of the season); a Box form near its team's share cannot tell teammates apart.

One point per player with both forms and at least 500 possessions; size by possessions; selecting a point opens the player.

Page 1 of 59 Next →