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Stat models: Points Box Elo

Net point-differential Box Elo from points created plus points prevented. An on-floor team-rate impact: how the team's rate of this event moves with the player on the floor, adjusted for everyone else there. It is not the player's own count.

Box form. Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play.

Family Lineup RAPM Box Elo Box Elo sides
Points Points Lineup RAPM (RAPM Overall) Points Box Elo offense · defense
Threes Threes Lineup RAPM not published for 2014-2015 offense · defense
Assists Assists Lineup RAPM not published for 2014-2015 offense · defense
OReb not published for 2014-2015 OReb Box Elo
DReb DReb Lineup RAPM not published for 2014-2015
Stocks not published for 2014-2015 Stocks Box Elo offense · defense
Turnovers not published for 2014-2015 Turnovers Box Elo ball security · forcing

Each family is shown in every form its season publishes, side by side: Lineup forms read on-court possessions from play-by-play, Box forms read game team totals spread by minutes, so they cannot separate teammates and are meant for seasons without play-by-play; RAPM is one regularized regression over the season, Elo online game-by-game updates. The Lineup form opens by default where the season has one. A season's held-out comparison of the two is information below, never a switch.

All columns in the players browser

2,941 player-seasons with a Points Box Elo rating and at least 500 possessions. Seasons that do not publish this form have no row here.

# Player Team Conf GP MPG Poss Pts Box Elo
1 Tyus Jones Duke ACC 39 33.9 3,095 42.7
2 Quinn Cook Duke ACC 39 35.8 3,294 42.0
3 Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin Big Ten 39 33.6 3,017 38.4
4 Nigel Hayes Wisconsin Big Ten 40 33.0 3,004 37.9
5 Brandon Ashley Arizona Pac-12 38 27.8 1,137 36.7
6 T.J. McConnell Arizona Pac-12 38 30.5 1,509 36.4
7 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona Pac-12 38 28.7 1,247 36.4
8 Justise Winslow Duke ACC 39 29.1 2,836 36.3
9 Stanley Johnson Arizona Pac-12 38 28.4 1,203 36.3
10 Josh Gasser Wisconsin Big Ten 40 33.0 2,996 36.3
11 Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona Pac-12 38 26.0 1,179 34.6
12 Dylan Ennis Villanova Big East 36 28.1 2,916 34.0
13 Sam Dekker Wisconsin Big Ten 40 31.0 2,866 33.4
14 Ryan Arcidiacono Villanova Big East 36 30.4 3,140 33.2
15 Jahlil Okafor Duke ACC 38 30.1 2,599 33.1
16 Josh Hart Villanova Big East 36 25.5 2,622 31.8
17 Darrun Hilliard Villanova Big East 35 28.8 2,961 31.7
18 Matt Jones Duke ACC 39 21.7 2,032 31.5
19 JayVaughn Pinkston Villanova Big East 36 25.9 2,622 31.3
20 Kevin Pangos Gonzaga WCC 38 33.6 3,417 31.1
21 Delon Wright Utah Pac-12 35 33.3 2,376 30.9
22 Malcolm Brogdon Virginia ACC 34 32.5 2,599 30.7
23 Byron Wesley Gonzaga WCC 38 26.7 2,681 30.5
24 Justin Anderson Virginia ACC 26 27.8 1,603 30.1
25 Bronson Koenig Wisconsin Big Ten 40 28.8 2,716 30.0
26 Brandon Taylor Utah Pac-12 35 30.2 2,134 29.9
27 Amile Jefferson Duke ACC 39 21.3 1,823 29.7
28 Jerian Grant Notre Dame ACC 38 37.1 3,639 29.4
29 Gary Bell JR Gonzaga WCC 38 27.8 2,716 29.1
30 Ron Baker Wichita State MVC 34 33.1 2,539 29.1
31 Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame ACC 38 34.7 3,345 28.7
32 Gabe York Arizona Pac-12 37 23.1 1,072 28.5
33 Daniel Ochefu Villanova Big East 36 24.0 2,444 28.1
34 Jacob Parker Stephen F. Austin Southland 34 27.1 2,026 27.6
35 Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga WCC 38 27.6 2,803 27.6
36 Isaiah Wright Utah Pac-12 33 12.6 827 27.5
37 Trey Pinkney Stephen F. Austin Southland 34 26.0 1,752 27.5
38 Frank Mason Kansas Big 12 36 33.5 3,058 27.0
39 Pat Connaughton Notre Dame ACC 38 35.6 3,455 26.6
40 Marcus Paige North Carolina ACC 38 32.9 3,549 26.3
41 Domantas Sabonis Gonzaga WCC 38 21.6 2,268 26.2
42 Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga WCC 38 24.5 2,397 26.1
43 Fred VanVleet Wichita State MVC 34 31.8 2,473 26.1
44 Wayne Selden Jr. Kansas Big 12 36 29.4 2,684 26.0
45 Marvin Singleton Northern Iowa MVC 35 25.0 2,053 25.9
46 Seth Tuttle Northern Iowa MVC 35 30.4 2,407 25.9
47 Thomas Walkup Stephen F. Austin Southland 34 27.7 2,035 25.6
48 Will Cummings Temple American 36 34.0 3,352 25.5
49 Nic Moore SMU American 34 34.7 2,959 24.8
50 Anthony Gill Virginia ACC 34 25.3 1,948 24.6

Points: Box vs Lineup, NCAAM 2014-2015

Points Lineup RAPM Points Box Elo
Players rated (at least 300 possessions) 3,453 3,234
Held-out correlation with the segment margin - -
Share of rating variance explained by team 0.24 (chance 0.10, 3453 players) 0.84 (chance 0.10, 3234 players)

No held-out comparison is recorded for points in 2014-2015. Team share: from this page's rows (team of the season); a Box form near its team's share cannot tell teammates apart.

One point per player with both forms and at least 500 possessions; size by possessions; selecting a point opens the player.

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