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Stat models: Points Box Elo

Net point-differential Box Elo from points created plus points prevented. An on-floor team-rate impact: how the team's rate of this event moves with the player on the floor, adjusted for everyone else there. It is not the player's own count.

Box form. Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play.

Family Lineup RAPM Box Elo Box Elo sides
Points Points Lineup RAPM (RAPM Overall) Points Box Elo offense · defense
Threes Threes Lineup RAPM not published for 2013-2014 offense · defense
Assists Assists Lineup RAPM not published for 2013-2014 offense · defense
OReb OReb Lineup RAPM not published for 2013-2014
DReb DReb Lineup RAPM not published for 2013-2014
Stocks Stocks Lineup RAPM not published for 2013-2014 offense · defense
Turnovers Turnovers Lineup RAPM not published for 2013-2014 ball security · forcing

Each family is shown in every form its season publishes, side by side: Lineup forms read on-court possessions from play-by-play, Box forms read game team totals spread by minutes, so they cannot separate teammates and are meant for seasons without play-by-play; RAPM is one regularized regression over the season, Elo online game-by-game updates. The Lineup form opens by default where the season has one. A season's held-out comparison of the two is information below, never a switch.

All columns in the players browser

2,978 player-seasons with a Points Box Elo rating and at least 500 possessions. Seasons that do not publish this form have no row here.

# Player Team Conf GP MPG Poss Pts Box Elo
1 Fred VanVleet Wichita State MVC 35 31.9 3,171 34.4
2 T.J. McConnell Arizona Pac-12 36 32.0 3,408 34.3
3 Michael Frazier Florida SEC 38 30.7 2,881 34.1
4 Aaron Gordon Arizona Pac-12 36 31.1 3,315 34.0
5 Nick Johnson Arizona Pac-12 36 33.0 3,527 33.8
6 Jarnell Stokes Tennessee SEC 34 32.4 2,988 33.6
7 Gabe York Arizona Pac-12 36 21.9 2,305 31.9
8 Malcolm Brogdon Virginia ACC 35 31.2 2,577 31.7
9 Ron Baker Wichita State MVC 35 29.7 3,094 31.7
10 Shabazz Napier UConn American 40 35.1 3,736 31.4
11 Ben Brust Wisconsin Big Ten 38 34.7 3,603 30.7
12 Josh Richardson Tennessee SEC 34 30.4 2,689 30.5
13 Tekele Cotton Wichita State MVC 35 30.0 3,037 30.1
14 Traevon Jackson Wisconsin Big Ten 38 30.8 3,164 29.8
15 Kyle Anderson UCLA Pac-12 34 33.5 3,572 29.3
16 Ryan Boatright UConn American 39 32.4 3,330 28.8
17 Josh Gasser Wisconsin Big Ten 38 33.4 3,425 28.7
18 Jordan McRae Tennessee SEC 34 32.1 2,890 28.5
19 Jordan Adams UCLA Pac-12 34 30.0 3,229 28.5
20 Glenn Robinson III Michigan Big Ten 35 32.0 3,472 28.5
21 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona Pac-12 36 25.4 2,684 28.0
22 Joe Harris Virginia ACC 35 29.4 2,378 27.9
23 London Perrantes Virginia ACC 35 29.6 2,516 27.8
24 Cleanthony Early Wichita State MVC 35 27.4 2,863 27.7
25 Brandon Ashley Arizona Pac-12 21 27.4 1,730 27.6
26 Andrew Wiggins Kansas Big 12 35 32.8 3,223 27.6
27 Keith Appling Michigan State Big Ten 35 31.5 2,820 27.3
28 Xavier Thames San Diego State Mountain West 36 31.3 2,783 27.3
29 Patric Young Florida SEC 38 26.3 2,339 27.2
30 Quinn Cook Duke ACC 35 29.8 2,433 27.0
31 Sam Dekker Wisconsin Big Ten 38 29.8 3,108 26.9
32 Dorian Finney-Smith Florida SEC 36 25.9 2,327 26.9
33 Wayne Selden Jr. Kansas Big 12 35 29.2 2,950 26.9
34 Scottie Wilbekin Florida SEC 33 34.0 2,710 26.9
35 Kasey Hill Florida SEC 31 22.2 1,571 26.8
36 Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin Big Ten 38 27.2 2,872 26.5
37 Will Yeguete Florida SEC 38 23.2 2,019 26.5
38 Casey Prather Florida SEC 36 27.9 2,301 26.4
39 Akil Mitchell Virginia ACC 35 25.7 2,049 26.4
40 Caris LeVert Michigan Big Ten 35 34.0 3,545 26.3
41 Skylar Spencer San Diego State Mountain West 36 23.8 2,000 26.2
42 Antonio Barton Tennessee SEC 34 25.1 2,163 26.0
43 DeAndre Daniels UConn American 38 29.0 2,967 25.6
44 Josh Davis San Diego State Mountain West 34 30.6 2,564 25.5
45 Jeronne Maymon Tennessee SEC 34 28.4 2,525 25.5
46 David Stockton Gonzaga WCC 35 27.9 2,492 25.4
47 Niels Giffey UConn American 40 24.7 2,592 25.4
48 Laurent Rivard Harvard Ivy 28 33.7 2,620 25.3
49 Marcus Smart Oklahoma State Big 12 29 32.8 2,079 25.0
50 Denzel Valentine Michigan State Big Ten 38 29.4 3,002 24.9

Points: Box vs Lineup, NCAAM 2013-2014

Points Lineup RAPM Points Box Elo
Players rated (at least 300 possessions) 3,446 3,290
Held-out correlation with the segment margin - -
Share of rating variance explained by team 0.21 (chance 0.10, 3446 players) 0.83 (chance 0.10, 3290 players)

No held-out comparison is recorded for points in 2013-2014. Team share: from this page's rows (team of the season); a Box form near its team's share cannot tell teammates apart.

One point per player with both forms and at least 500 possessions; size by possessions; selecting a point opens the player.

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