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Stat models: Points Box Elo (offense)

Online player rating for contribution to team scoring rate. An on-floor team-rate impact: how the team's rate of this event moves with the player on the floor, adjusted for everyone else there. It is not the player's own count.

Box form. Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play.

Family Lineup RAPM Box Elo Box Elo sides
Points Points Lineup RAPM (RAPM Overall) Points Box Elo offense · defense
Threes Threes Lineup RAPM not published for 2014-2015 offense · defense
Assists Assists Lineup RAPM not published for 2014-2015 offense · defense
OReb not published for 2014-2015 OReb Box Elo
DReb DReb Lineup RAPM not published for 2014-2015
Stocks not published for 2014-2015 Stocks Box Elo offense · defense
Turnovers not published for 2014-2015 Turnovers Box Elo ball security · forcing

Each family is shown in every form its season publishes, side by side: Lineup forms read on-court possessions from play-by-play, Box forms read game team totals spread by minutes, so they cannot separate teammates and are meant for seasons without play-by-play; RAPM is one regularized regression over the season, Elo online game-by-game updates. The Lineup form opens by default where the season has one. A season's held-out comparison of the two is information below, never a switch.

All columns in the players browser

2,941 player-seasons with a Points Box Elo (offense) rating and at least 500 possessions. Seasons that do not publish this form have no row here.

# Player Team Conf GP MPG Poss Pts Box Elo O
1 Nigel Hayes Wisconsin Big Ten 40 33.0 3,004 30.9
2 Josh Gasser Wisconsin Big Ten 40 33.0 2,996 30.3
3 Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin Big Ten 39 33.6 3,017 30.0
4 Sam Dekker Wisconsin Big Ten 40 31.0 2,866 29.4
5 Bronson Koenig Wisconsin Big Ten 40 28.8 2,716 25.8
6 Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame ACC 38 34.7 3,345 25.0
7 Jerian Grant Notre Dame ACC 38 37.1 3,639 24.9
8 Tyus Jones Duke ACC 39 33.9 3,095 24.7
9 Quinn Cook Duke ACC 39 35.8 3,294 23.9
10 Pat Connaughton Notre Dame ACC 38 35.6 3,455 22.9
11 Ryan Arcidiacono Villanova Big East 36 30.4 3,140 21.5
12 Steve Vasturia Notre Dame ACC 38 32.5 3,120 21.4
13 Tyler Haws BYU WCC 35 32.1 2,225 21.3
14 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona Pac-12 38 28.7 1,247 20.6
15 Dylan Ennis Villanova Big East 36 28.1 2,916 20.5
16 Tyler Harvey Eastern Washington Big Sky 31 36.8 2,686 20.5
17 Kevin Yogi Ferrell Indiana Big Ten 33 35.0 2,949 20.4
18 T.J. McConnell Arizona Pac-12 38 30.5 1,509 20.0
19 Jahlil Okafor Duke ACC 38 30.1 2,599 19.9
20 Tyler Kalinoski Davidson A-10 32 34.8 2,355 19.9
21 Justise Winslow Duke ACC 39 29.1 2,836 19.6
22 Kevin Pangos Gonzaga WCC 38 33.6 3,417 19.6
23 Jeffery Moss Murray State OVC 34 33.1 1,716 19.6
24 Marcus Paige North Carolina ACC 38 32.9 3,549 19.6
25 Zach Auguste Notre Dame ACC 37 24.4 2,258 19.4
26 Kyle Collinsworth BYU WCC 33 30.9 2,079 19.3
27 Brandon Ashley Arizona Pac-12 38 27.8 1,137 19.3
28 Byron Wesley Gonzaga WCC 38 26.7 2,681 19.2
29 T.J. Sapp Murray State OVC 34 30.5 1,684 19.1
30 JayVaughn Pinkston Villanova Big East 36 25.9 2,622 19.1
31 Stanley Johnson Arizona Pac-12 38 28.4 1,203 19.1
32 Darrun Hilliard Villanova Big East 35 28.8 2,961 19.0
33 Jacob Parker Stephen F. Austin Southland 34 27.1 2,026 18.9
34 Chase Fischer BYU WCC 34 26.9 1,674 18.8
35 Josh Hart Villanova Big East 36 25.5 2,622 18.8
36 Jarvis Williams Murray State OVC 34 31.1 1,636 18.8
37 James Blackmon Jr. Indiana Big Ten 32 30.2 2,609 18.6
38 Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga WCC 38 27.6 2,803 18.6
39 Monté Morris Iowa State Big 12 34 33.9 3,248 18.3
40 Gary Bell JR Gonzaga WCC 38 27.8 2,716 18.1
41 Matt Jones Duke ACC 39 21.7 2,032 18.1
42 Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona Pac-12 38 26.0 1,179 18.1
43 Marvin Singleton Northern Iowa MVC 35 25.0 2,053 17.9
44 Amile Jefferson Duke ACC 39 21.3 1,823 17.8
45 Seth Tuttle Northern Iowa MVC 35 30.4 2,407 17.7
46 Trey Pinkney Stephen F. Austin Southland 34 26.0 1,752 17.6
47 Cameron Payne Murray State OVC 34 32.1 1,755 17.5
48 Nazareth Mitrou-Long Iowa State Big 12 34 27.5 2,610 17.4
49 Robert Johnson Indiana Big Ten 33 27.3 2,341 17.3
50 Georges Niang Iowa State Big 12 34 30.7 2,944 17.0

Points: Box vs Lineup, NCAAM 2014-2015

Points Lineup RAPM Points Box Elo
Players rated (at least 300 possessions) 3,453 3,234
Held-out correlation with the segment margin - -
Share of rating variance explained by team 0.24 (chance 0.10, 3453 players) 0.84 (chance 0.10, 3234 players)

No held-out comparison is recorded for points in 2014-2015. Team share: from this page's rows (team of the season); a Box form near its team's share cannot tell teammates apart.

One point per player with both forms and at least 500 possessions; size by possessions; selecting a point opens the player.

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