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Stat models: Points Box Elo (offense)

Online player rating for contribution to team scoring rate. An on-floor team-rate impact: how the team's rate of this event moves with the player on the floor, adjusted for everyone else there. It is not the player's own count.

Box form. Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play.

Family Lineup RAPM Box Elo Box Elo sides
Points Points Lineup RAPM (RAPM Overall) Points Box Elo offense · defense
Threes Threes Lineup RAPM not published for 2011-2012 offense · defense
Assists Assists Lineup RAPM not published for 2011-2012 offense · defense
OReb not published for 2011-2012 OReb Box Elo
DReb DReb Lineup RAPM not published for 2011-2012
Stocks Stocks Lineup RAPM not published for 2011-2012 offense · defense
Turnovers Turnovers Lineup RAPM not published for 2011-2012 ball security · forcing

Each family is shown in every form its season publishes, side by side: Lineup forms read on-court possessions from play-by-play, Box forms read game team totals spread by minutes, so they cannot separate teammates and are meant for seasons without play-by-play; RAPM is one regularized regression over the season, Elo online game-by-game updates. The Lineup form opens by default where the season has one. A season's held-out comparison of the two is information below, never a switch.

All columns in the players browser

2,881 player-seasons with a Points Box Elo (offense) rating and at least 500 possessions. Seasons that do not publish this form have no row here.

# Player Team Conf GP MPG Poss Pts Box Elo O
1 Marcus Denmon Missouri Big 12 35 34.6 2,511 22.9
2 Kim English Missouri Big 12 35 33.6 2,415 21.8
3 Devoe Joseph Oregon Pac-12 27 35.3 2,888 20.9
4 Phl Pressey Missouri Big 12 35 32.1 2,333 20.9
5 Christian Watford Indiana Big Ten 36 28.4 2,789 20.7
6 Jordan Hulls Indiana Big Ten 36 30.1 2,892 20.2
7 Cody Zeller Indiana Big Ten 36 28.5 2,730 19.9
8 Matt Pressey Missouri Big 12 35 24.9 1,716 19.8
9 Michael Dixon Jr. Missouri Big 12 35 26.7 1,971 19.6
10 Garrett Sim Oregon Pac-12 33 31.4 3,133 19.4
11 Scott Machado Iona MAAC 33 35.5 2,635 19.2
12 E.J. Singler Oregon Pac-12 33 30.7 2,998 18.8
13 Ricardo Ratliffe Missouri Big 12 35 26.2 1,938 18.8
14 Bradley Beal Florida SEC 37 34.2 3,156 18.4
15 Victor Oladipo Indiana Big Ten 36 26.7 2,516 18.4
16 Kris Joseph Syracuse Big East 37 32.2 3,255 18.0
17 Jeffery Taylor Vanderbilt SEC 36 32.1 3,012 17.9
18 Antoine Young Creighton MVC 35 30.6 2,917 17.8
19 Toure' Murry Wichita State MVC 32 29.7 2,557 17.8
20 Drew Hanlen Belmont ASUN 34 31.4 3,101 17.7
21 William Buford Ohio State Big Ten 39 33.8 3,550 17.5
22 Nate Wolters South Dakota State Summit 33 35.8 2,774 17.5
23 John Jenkins Vanderbilt SEC 35 33.6 3,044 17.4
24 Kerron Johnson Belmont ASUN 33 28.5 2,768 17.3
25 Kenny Boynton Florida SEC 37 31.6 2,869 17.3
26 Grant Gibbs Creighton MVC 35 29.9 2,774 17.2
27 Kendall Marshall North Carolina ACC 36 33.0 2,116 17.0
28 Jahenns Manigat Creighton MVC 35 22.7 2,152 17.0
29 Lamont Jones Iona MAAC 33 34.3 2,523 16.9
30 Robbie Hummel Purdue Big Ten 35 32.2 2,881 16.7
31 Erving Walker Florida SEC 37 31.3 2,767 16.6
32 Mike Glover Iona MAAC 33 33.6 2,566 16.3
33 Verdell Jones III Indiana Big Ten 30 24.5 1,828 16.2
34 Joe Ragland Wichita State MVC 31 27.6 2,264 16.1
35 Doug McDermott Creighton MVC 35 31.9 3,056 16.0
36 Dion Waiters Syracuse Big East 37 24.1 2,351 15.9
37 Draymond Green Michigan State Big Ten 37 33.2 2,836 15.6
38 Ian Clark Belmont ASUN 33 27.6 2,747 15.5
39 Jared Sullinger Ohio State Big Ten 37 30.4 3,019 15.4
40 Stephen Holt Saint Mary's WCC 28 32.4 1,666 15.3
41 C.J. Fair Syracuse Big East 37 26.4 2,742 15.2
42 Brayden Carlson South Dakota State Summit 34 32.0 2,473 15.0
43 Reggie Hamilton Oakland Golden Summit 35 35.6 3,410 14.9
44 Aaron Craft Ohio State Big Ten 39 32.2 3,429 14.9
45 Austin Rivers Duke ACC 34 33.2 2,933 14.8
46 Deshaun Thomas Ohio State Big Ten 39 31.4 3,332 14.7
47 Dave Sobolewski Northwestern Big Ten 32 35.4 2,625 14.7
48 Ryne Smith Purdue Big Ten 35 28.7 2,589 14.6
49 Royce White Iowa State Big 12 33 31.7 2,743 14.5
50 Jordan Dykstra South Dakota State Summit 31 24.6 1,849 14.4

Points: Box vs Lineup, NCAAM 2011-2012

Points Lineup RAPM Points Box Elo
Players rated (at least 300 possessions) 3,336 3,242
Held-out correlation with the segment margin - -
Share of rating variance explained by team 0.21 (chance 0.10, 3336 players) 0.85 (chance 0.10, 3242 players)

No held-out comparison is recorded for points in 2011-2012. Team share: from this page's rows (team of the season); a Box form near its team's share cannot tell teammates apart.

One point per player with both forms and at least 500 possessions; size by possessions; selecting a point opens the player.

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