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RAPM Game Score Visual Exploration

2026-03-08 • By Codex

This post checks league coverage and explores how adjusted game impact relates to box-score numbers.

Instantiation Coverage

Regular-season coverage gap count (RAPM exists but RAPM GS missing): 0.

League GS Regular Seasons RAPM Regular Seasons
gleague 25 25
nba 30 30
ncaam 16 16
ncaamd2 9 9
ncaamd3 6 6
ncaaw 9 9
ncaawd2 8 8
ncaawd3 9 9
wnba 28 28

Latest regular season used per league in the plots:

  • gleague: 2025-2026
  • nba: 2025-2026
  • ncaam: 2025-2026
  • ncaamd2: 2025-2026
  • ncaamd3: 2025-2026
  • ncaaw: 2025-2026
  • ncaawd2: 2025-2026
  • ncaawd3: 2025-2026
  • wnba: 2024-2025

Data Quality Checks (Latest Season per League)

League-level outlier counts:

League Rows Abs Score >100 Abs GS/100 >300 Abs GS/100 >300 & poss<5 Abs GS/100 >300 & poss>=20 Abs GS/100 >300 & poss>=30
gleague 5144 0 498 350 0 0
nba 17693 0 27 27 0 0
ncaam 88246 0 0 0 0 0
ncaamd2 171846 0 14 14 0 0
ncaamd3 220931 0 22 22 0 0
ncaaw 190669 0 11 11 0 0
ncaawd2 140823 0 14 14 0 0
ncaawd3 182194 0 22 22 0 0
wnba 3570 0 5 5 0 0

Per-100 outlier rows (|GS/100| > 300) by possession bucket:

Possession Bin Count Share %
<1 201 32.79
1-2 100 16.31
2-5 164 26.75
5-10 125 20.39
10-20 23 3.75
20-30 0 0.0
30-40 0 0.0
40-60 0 0.0
60-100 0 0.0
100+ 0 0.0

Key takeaways from these checks:

  • |score| > 100 rows: 0.
  • |GS/100| > 300 rows: 613.
  • |GS/100| > 300 with possessions >= 20: 0.
  • |GS/100| > 300 with possessions >= 30: 0.

Plot 1: Season RAPM vs Game RAPM GS/100

RAPM rating vs game score per 100 poss

Plot 2: Correlation Heatmap (Numbers vs RAPM GS/100)

Correlation heatmap

Plot 3: Adjusted vs Raw Plus-Minus (per 100)

Raw PM vs adjusted game score

Plot 4: Points vs RAPM GS/100 (with trend lines)

Points vs adjusted game score

Plot 5: NCAAM Outlier Map (Impact minus Points)

NCAAM outlier map

Top positive outliers (impact >> points):

Player Game Points GS/100 Delta(z) Raw +/-
J. O'Neill 6531649 2.0 102.99 6.63 25.0
Johann Gruenloh 6530714 0.0 93.35 6.4 28.0
A. Siewruk 6531649 4.0 102.99 6.33 25.0
Myles Blackley 6531649 4.0 101.39 6.24 34.0
Christian Blair 6506037 1.0 79.03 5.47 18.0
Quin Patterson 6501010 0.0 69.08 5.07 31.0
London Praytor 6501914 2.0 72.55 4.96 16.0
Darone Frierson 6529268 0.0 64.94 4.84 21.0
Shawn Phillips Jr. 6502884 5.0 78.43 4.83 24.0
N. Rocak 6505838 0.0 63.77 4.78 30.0

Top negative outliers (points >> impact):

Player Game Points GS/100 Delta(z) Raw +/-
R. Hinton 6501156 35.0 -42.89 -6.38 -14.0
Kj Younger 6505356 30.0 -50.07 -6.02 -17.0
P. Bandelj 6501286 37.0 -26.05 -5.76 -13.0
J. Campbell 6530704 47.0 2.4 -5.71 2.0
Daniel Michelini-Jackson 6504597 24.0 -57.57 -5.52 -92.0
Karmello Branch 6502799 18.0 -72.36 -5.42 -17.0
Laolu Kalejaiye 6504758 38.0 -16.18 -5.36 -23.0
D. Daniels Jr. 6501478 47.0 8.64 -5.36 7.0
Daniel Michelini-Jackson 6501594 27.0 -45.84 -5.33 -10.0
John St. Germain Iii 6503509 29.0 -40.26 -5.32 -51.0

Player-Level Calibration (Weighted Average RAPM GS/100 vs RAPM)

League Players>=500 poss Corr MAE Bias Slope Intercept
gleague 39 0.67 7.63 -0.85 4.78 -3.0
nba 391 0.75 3.89 -0.43 3.04 -0.55
ncaam 3206 0.78 3.91 1.46 6.15 1.24
ncaamd2 2632 0.48 2.79 0.13 1.14 0.12
ncaamd3 3662 0.5 2.71 -0.09 1.12 -0.1
ncaaw 3510 0.82 2.02 0.52 1.56 0.44
ncaawd2 2685 0.53 2.81 0.13 1.21 0.11
ncaawd3 3524 0.6 2.95 -0.11 1.38 -0.17
wnba 103 0.53 3.23 -0.12 4.03 -0.08

Interpretation:

  • The weighted average RAPMGS/100 is directionally aligned with season RAPM in all leagues (positive slope/correlation).
  • It is not a 1:1 identity in current data, which is expected because game score is game-context-adjusted realization, not a pure estimate of latent player RAPM.

Arizona 2025-2026 Full Game Log Sanity Check

Arizona game log diagnostics

Games with missing Arizona RAPMGS rows:

Date Game Opponent
2026-02-07 6503866 Oklahoma St.

Arizona full game log with RAPMGS diagnostics:

Date Game Opponent H/A W/L AZ Opp Margin Team RAPMGS/100 Team Raw PM/100 Max abs Player Score Max abs Player GS/100 Max abs Player GS/100 (poss>=20) Players poss<5 Player Rows Has RAPMGS
2025-11-03 6501196 Florida A W 93 87 6 1.41 1.25 14.84 11.87 11.87 0.0 10.0 yes
2025-11-07 6503476 Utah Tech H W 93 67 26 15.9 21.06 17.72 29.48 27.14 0.0 12.0 yes
2025-11-11 6502821 Northern Ariz. H W 84 49 35 20.05 25.69 34.16 49.46 48.05 0.0 14.0 yes
2025-11-14 6501197 UCLA A W 69 65 4 1.62 3.01 15.07 24.92 24.92 0.0 8.0 yes
2025-11-19 6501198 UConn A W 71 67 4 0.66 2.04 7.1 23.22 23.22 0.0 9.0 yes
2025-11-24 6502811 Denver H W 103 73 30 11.51 18.14 27.37 67.77 38.74 0.0 14.0 yes
2025-11-29 6503287 Norfolk St. H W 98 61 37 27.19 32.67 28.99 70.9 35.88 2.0 14.0 yes
2025-12-06 6501199 Auburn H W 97 68 29 25.25 27.12 34.96 42.87 42.87 4.0 12.0 yes
2025-12-13 6501200 Alabama A W 96 75 21 5.57 7.66 22.08 35.77 24.67 0.0 14.0 yes
2025-12-16 6502469 Abilene Christian H W 96 62 34 5.52 9.26 9.81 35.5 35.5 5.0 14.0 yes
2025-12-20 6501201 San Diego St. A W 68 45 23 12.41 14.65 20.67 110.05 29.43 4.0 14.0 yes
2025-12-22 6501417 Bethune-Cookman H W 107 71 36 9.9 13.03 23.17 37.91 25.88 2.0 16.0 yes
2025-12-29 6503858 South Dakota St. H W 99 71 28 13.32 17.93 24.03 23.06 23.06 0.0 10.0 yes
2026-01-03 6503859 Utah A W 97 78 19 3.69 5.08 25.1 110.23 26.9 4.0 15.0 yes
2026-01-07 6503402 Kansas St. H W 101 76 25 10.93 14.76 25.66 27.67 23.13 0.0 14.0 yes
2026-01-10 6503860 TCU A W 86 73 13 5.24 7.6 11.61 22.57 22.57 0.0 8.0 yes
2026-01-14 6503861 Arizona St. H W 89 82 7 -0.62 3.43 11.89 21.26 21.26 0.0 8.0 yes
2026-01-17 6503862 UCF A W 84 77 7 2.93 4.49 14.31 23.35 23.35 0.0 8.0 yes
2026-01-21 6503863 Cincinnati H W 77 51 26 18.67 20.31 25.19 109.49 27.36 1.0 12.0 yes
2026-01-24 6503864 West Virginia H W 88 53 35 22.3 25.43 32.17 33.54 31.11 0.0 12.0 yes
2026-01-26 6502243 BYU A W 86 83 3 -0.03 1.79 10.52 15.65 15.65 1.0 9.0 yes
2026-01-31 6503865 Arizona St. A W 87 74 13 4.69 8.69 16.62 87.78 14.24 1.0 11.0 yes
2026-02-07 6503866 Oklahoma St. H W 84 47 37 nan nan nan nan nan nan nan no

Top Arizona player-game rows by absolute GS/100:

Date Game Player Score Poss GS/100 Raw +/-
2026-01-03 6503859 Christian Blair -2.0 1.82 -110.23 -2.0
2026-01-03 6503859 Dale Brillantes -2.0 1.82 -110.23 -2.0
2026-01-03 6503859 S. Djopmo -2.0 1.82 -110.23 -2.0
2026-01-03 6503859 Evan Nelson -2.0 1.82 -110.06 -2.0
2025-12-20 6501201 Dale Brillantes -3.0 2.73 -110.05 -3.0
2025-12-20 6501201 S. Djopmo -3.0 2.73 -110.05 -3.0
2025-12-20 6501201 Shawn Phillips Jr. -3.0 2.73 -109.92 -3.0
2025-12-20 6501201 Evan Nelson -3.0 2.73 -109.88 -3.0
2026-01-21 6503863 S. Djopmo 2.99 2.73 109.49 3.0
2026-01-31 6503865 A. Arnold -4.11 4.69 -87.78 -4.0
2026-01-31 6503865 Sidi Gueye -6.23 8.32 -74.83 -6.0
2026-01-31 6503865 Evan Nelson -6.22 8.32 -74.79 -6.0
2025-11-29 6503287 Sidi Gueye 6.79 9.58 70.9 7.0
2025-11-24 6502811 S. Djopmo -5.02 7.41 -67.77 -5.0
2025-11-24 6502811 J. Francois -5.02 7.41 -67.77 -5.0
2025-11-24 6502811 J. Cook -5.02 7.41 -67.77 -5.0
2025-11-29 6503287 A. Arnold 4.87 7.76 62.78 5.0
2025-11-29 6503287 S. Djopmo 3.91 6.76 57.83 4.0
2025-11-11 6502821 J. Francois -6.29 12.73 -49.46 -6.0
2025-11-11 6502821 J. Cook -6.29 12.73 -49.46 -6.0

Notes

  • Base plotted sample size: 1,021,116 player-games.
  • Boxscore-enriched sample size: 1,021,116 player-games.
  • Visual-rate filtered sample size (possessions >= 20.0, minutes >= 5.0 where available): 206,848.
  • RAPM GS/100 = 100 * score / possessions.
  • Very large per-100 values are dominated by tiny-possession rows; use possession/minute filters for interpretation.
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