Model Predictions
| Model | Merrimack Warriors | Villanova Wildcats | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
2.2% (#270) | 97.8% (#37) | Villano... -29.0 | 51-80 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
4.4% (#261) | 95.6% (#37) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
10.9% (#291) | 89.1% (#51) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
4.7% (#265) | 95.3% (#49) | Villano... -33.2 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
5.0% (#265) | 95.0% (#49) | Villano... -32.4 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
2.1% (#314) | 97.9% (#101) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
6.2% (#322) | 93.8% (#66) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
5.8% (#319) | 94.2% (#65) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
5.2% (#304) | 94.8% (#61) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
7.7% (#313) | 92.3% (#72) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
6.3% (#300) | 93.7% (#58) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
6.8% (#302) | 93.2% (#60) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
15.1% (#276) | 84.9% (#50) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend
2026-27 ratings to date
|
3.0% (#282) | 97.0% (#44) | - | - |
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 5.2 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.4-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 131 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | Merrimack Warriors | Villanova Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| PPG | 49.3 | 74.5 |
| FG% | 38.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 22.0% | 28.6% |
| FT% | 54.8% | 76.0% |
| RPG | 36.7 | 31.5 |
| APG | 8.0 | 15.5 |
| SPG | 6.0 | 9.0 |
| BPG | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| TOPG | 27.7 | 10.5 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | Merrimack Warriors | Villanova Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 88.7 | 101.8 |
| Adj. Def Eff | 111.3 | 98.2 |
| Adj. Net Eff | -22.6 | 3.6 |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
Merrimack Warriors Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Crespo | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 32.3 |
| Jamie Kent | 7.3 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 31.3 |
| Joi Williams | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 31.0 |
| Kristen Kelley | 6.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 29.7 |
| Olivia Borsutzki | 7.0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 25.3 |
Villanova Wildcats Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Bascoe | 27.5 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 38.5 |
| Kennedy Henry | 15.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 33.5 |
| Alexis Eberz | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.5 |
| Dani Ceseretti | 5.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 25.0 |
| Elise Bender | 11.5 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 21.0 |