Model Predictions
| Model | UMBC Retrievers | Marist Red Foxes | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.2% | 63.8% | +2.2 | ✓ (5.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.3% | 84.7% | +9.4 | ✓ (1.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.9% | 84.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.0% | 84.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Marist Red Foxes +8 (88-80). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Burton * | 33 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 4 | -0.8 |
| Devin Ceaser * | 33 | 7-15 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 17 | +5.9 |
| Riley Jacobs * | 31 | 7-10 | 1-2 | 8-9 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 23 | +2.1 |
| Aidan Able * | 30 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | -5.9 |
| Jovan Ristic * | 30 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -2.8 |
| Carlos Varela | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -18.3 |
| JP Ndong | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4.6 |
| Steven Huan | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.3 |
| Evan Morton | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.6 |
| Jaiden Reynolds | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Alpha Barry | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.1 |
Marist Red Foxes
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dywane Chess * | 31 | 6-14 | 4-8 | 4-6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 9 | -1.2 |
| Jadin Collins-Roberts * | 30 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 12-15 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 21 | -5.6 |
| Jordan Gabriel * | 26 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | -0.1 |
| Jack Graham * | 25 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | -1.2 |
| Edward Onyia * | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2.7 |
| Myles Parker | 22 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | +3.0 |
| Brandon Arnold | 20 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | +12.1 |
| Brady MacAdams | 15 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 6-7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | +10.8 |
| Logan Rodriguez | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +6.0 |
| Cameron Sweeney | 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Tarik Watson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -0.1 |
* = starter