Model Predictions
| Model | App State Mo... | Davidson Wildcats | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
21.9% (#161) | 78.1% (#122) | Davidso... -6.1 | 63-69 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
21.4% (#169) | 78.6% (#139) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
25.2% (#160) | 74.8% (#159) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
18.1% (#158) | 81.9% (#66) | Davidso... -16.6 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
18.3% (#156) | 81.7% (#65) | Davidso... -16.4 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
36.0% (#149) | 64.0% (#121) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
29.8% (#157) | 70.2% (#88) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
29.1% (#157) | 70.9% (#86) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
21.8% (#140) | 78.2% (#102) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
23.4% (#134) | 76.6% (#95) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
29.5% (#153) | 70.5% (#96) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
29.9% (#152) | 70.1% (#96) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
42.3% (#172) | 57.7% (#143) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend
2026-27 ratings to date
|
34.5% (#170) | 65.5% (#121) | - | - |
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 5.2 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.4-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 131 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | App State Mo... | Davidson Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| PPG | 90.5 | 67.3 |
| FG% | 51.5% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 20.0% |
| FT% | 73.7% | 74.1% |
| RPG | 43.0 | 36.7 |
| APG | 16.0 | 14.0 |
| SPG | 15.5 | 8.0 |
| BPG | 2.5 | 4.0 |
| TOPG | 16.5 | 11.7 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | App State Mo... | Davidson Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 102.7 | 106.7 |
| Adj. Def Eff | 97.3 | 93.3 |
| Adj. Net Eff | 5.5 | 13.5 |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
App State Mountaineers Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joi Williams | 11.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| Torin Rogers | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 24.5 |
| Daisia Mitchell | 12.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 24.0 |
| F. Atili | 10.5 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 23.0 |
| Raven Preston | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 |
Davidson Wildcats Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyra Bruyndoncx | 15.0 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 28.7 |
| Katie Donovan | 16.3 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 27.7 |
| Emilie Bessell | 6.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 25.3 |
| Elena Alvarez Castellanos | 3.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| Asha Nightingale | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 |