Model Predictions
| Model | Navy Midshipmen | James Madison Dukes | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
23.2% (#91) | 76.8% (#65) | James M... -5.4 | 63-68 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
21.0% (#80) | 79.0% (#58) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
23.8% (#83) | 76.2% (#72) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
22.5% (#126) | 77.5% (#64) | James M... -13.6 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
22.6% (#127) | 77.4% (#64) | James M... -13.6 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
33.7% (#107) | 66.3% (#79) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
27.1% (#123) | 72.9% (#58) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
26.0% (#120) | 74.0% (#58) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
17.7% (#82) | 82.3% (#42) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
18.4% (#81) | 81.6% (#39) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
28.6% (#107) | 71.4% (#65) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
28.8% (#108) | 71.2% (#65) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
40.9% (#88) | 59.1% (#75) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend
2026-27 ratings to date
|
32.5% (#89) | 67.5% (#59) | - | - |
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 5.2 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.4-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 131 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | Navy Midshipmen | James Madison Dukes |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| PPG | 84.0 | 57.3 |
| FG% | 45.2% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 28.1% |
| FT% | 66.7% | 68.6% |
| RPG | 45.0 | 37.7 |
| APG | 17.5 | 9.3 |
| SPG | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| BPG | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| TOPG | 25.5 | 17.3 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | Navy Midshipmen | James Madison Dukes |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 98.2 | 106.5 |
| Adj. Def Eff | 101.8 | 93.5 |
| Adj. Net Eff | -3.6 | 12.9 |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
Navy Midshipmen Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe Mesuch | 16.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 |
| Zanai Barnett-Gay | 15.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 |
| Christina Liggio | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 |
| Julianna Almeida | 8.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 |
| Isa Grant | 12.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 18.0 |
James Madison Dukes Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bree Robinson | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 28.7 |
| Maddie Leach | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 23.7 |
| Zakiya Stephenson | 11.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 23.0 |
| Delilah Soltys | 5.0 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 23.0 |
| Trinity Moore | 8.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 19.3 |