Model Predictions
| Model | Morgan State... | UMBC Retrievers | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
6.6% (#336) | 93.4% (#153) | UMBC Retrievers -18.5 | 56-75 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
9.9% (#329) | 90.1% (#157) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
14.6% (#334) | 85.4% (#142) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
8.6% (#352) | 91.4% (#169) | UMBC Retrievers -26.0 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
8.8% (#352) | 91.2% (#169) | UMBC Retrievers -25.7 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
0.1% (#362) | 99.9% (#106) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
3.9% (#363) | 96.1% (#133) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
3.4% (#362) | 96.6% (#133) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
5.0% (#355) | 95.0% (#128) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
5.9% (#358) | 94.1% (#114) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
7.0% (#356) | 93.0% (#142) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
7.2% (#356) | 92.8% (#141) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
22.5% (#339) | 77.5% (#153) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend
2026-27 ratings to date
|
4.9% (#347) | 95.1% (#148) | - | - |
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 5.2 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.4-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 131 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | Morgan State... | UMBC Retrievers |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| PPG | 54.3 | 87.3 |
| FG% | 30.9% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 19.6% | 38.2% |
| FT% | 52.9% | 65.5% |
| RPG | 35.0 | 41.3 |
| APG | 10.5 | 18.3 |
| SPG | 10.5 | 15.7 |
| BPG | 2.8 | 4.7 |
| TOPG | 18.5 | 12.0 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | Morgan State... | UMBC Retrievers |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 78.5 | 105.3 |
| Adj. Def Eff | 121.5 | 94.7 |
| Adj. Net Eff | -43.0 | 10.7 |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
Morgan State Lady Bears Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mihjae Hayes | 4.8 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 24.5 |
| Chardae Rumph | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 18.8 |
| Kamari Forrest | 3.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 18.7 |
| Merit Innocent | 5.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 17.8 |
| Yonta Vaughn | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 15.5 |
UMBC Retrievers Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi Williams | 17.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 22.7 |
| Dagny Slomack | 14.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 21.3 |
| Kennedy Austin | 9.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 21.0 |
| Angela Williams | 15.3 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 19.3 |
| Alaina Williams | 9.7 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 18.7 |