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Model Predictions

Model Nevada Wolf Pack UC Santa Bar... Spread Projected
Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
65.5% (#52) 34.5% (#114) Nevada ... -7.3 79-71
Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
34.2% (#47) 65.8% (#115) - -
Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
26.0% (#50) 74.0% (#119) - -
Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
50.8% (#45) 49.2% (#102) Nevada ... -0.4 -
Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
50.1% (#45) 49.9% (#100) Nevada ... -0.1 -
Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
80.2% (#31) 19.8% (#103) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
67.0% (#54) 33.0% (#118) - -
Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
67.4% (#54) 32.6% (#118) - -
Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
40.5% (#39) 59.5% (#126) - -
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
35.5% (#44) 64.5% (#128) - -
Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
60.8% (#42) 39.2% (#120) - -
Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
59.8% (#43) 40.2% (#120) - -
Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
60.2% (#53) 39.8% (#117) - -
Adjusted Context BlendPrior-only ranking with no forecast

2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 4.6 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.3-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 150 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Nevada Wolf Pack UC Santa Bar...
Games 1 2
PPG 86.0 87.5
FG% 47.1% 50.9%
3PT% 30.8% 52.1%
FT% 60.9% 65.4%
RPG 47.0 37.5
APG 22.0 21.5
SPG 8.0 7.0
BPG 2.0 5.5
TOPG 8.0 9.0

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Nevada Wolf Pack UC Santa Bar...
Adj. Off Eff 108.1 103.6
Adj. Def Eff 91.9 96.4
Adj. Net Eff 16.3 7.3

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Nevada Wolf Pack Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Styles Phipps 13.0 8.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 24.0
Peter Bandelj 9.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 24.0
TJ Coulter 14.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 22.0
Vaughn Weems 13.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 21.0
Peyton White 4.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 21.0

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Aidan Mahaney 11.5 0.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 24.0
CJ Shaw 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 22.5
Miro Little 7.0 1.5 5.0 1.5 0.0 20.5
RJ Smith 7.0 2.0 5.5 0.0 0.5 18.5
Eric Dibami 10.5 5.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 18.5