Model Predictions
| Model | Nevada Wolf Pack | UC Santa Bar... | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
65.5% (#52) | 34.5% (#114) | Nevada ... -7.3 | 79-71 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
34.2% (#47) | 65.8% (#115) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
26.0% (#50) | 74.0% (#119) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
50.8% (#45) | 49.2% (#102) | Nevada ... -0.4 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
50.1% (#45) | 49.9% (#100) | Nevada ... -0.1 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
80.2% (#31) | 19.8% (#103) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
67.0% (#54) | 33.0% (#118) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
67.4% (#54) | 32.6% (#118) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
40.5% (#39) | 59.5% (#126) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
35.5% (#44) | 64.5% (#128) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
60.8% (#42) | 39.2% (#120) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
59.8% (#43) | 40.2% (#120) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
60.2% (#53) | 39.8% (#117) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend | Prior-only ranking with no forecast | |||
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 4.6 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.3-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 150 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | Nevada Wolf Pack | UC Santa Bar... |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 2 |
| PPG | 86.0 | 87.5 |
| FG% | 47.1% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 52.1% |
| FT% | 60.9% | 65.4% |
| RPG | 47.0 | 37.5 |
| APG | 22.0 | 21.5 |
| SPG | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| BPG | 2.0 | 5.5 |
| TOPG | 8.0 | 9.0 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | Nevada Wolf Pack | UC Santa Bar... |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 108.1 | 103.6 |
| Adj. Def Eff | 91.9 | 96.4 |
| Adj. Net Eff | 16.3 | 7.3 |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
Nevada Wolf Pack Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Styles Phipps | 13.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 |
| Peter Bandelj | 9.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 |
| TJ Coulter | 14.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 22.0 |
| Vaughn Weems | 13.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 |
| Peyton White | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 |
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mahaney | 11.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 |
| CJ Shaw | 8.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 22.5 |
| Miro Little | 7.0 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 20.5 |
| RJ Smith | 7.0 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 18.5 |
| Eric Dibami | 10.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 18.5 |