Model Predictions
| Model | Saint Mary's Gaels | Nevada Wolf Pack | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
30.3% (#63) | 69.7% (#52) | Nevada ... -4.3 | 73-77 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
15.1% (#70) | 84.9% (#47) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
17.4% (#71) | 82.6% (#50) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
35.8% (#37) | 64.2% (#45) | Nevada ... -6.4 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
36.2% (#37) | 63.8% (#45) | Nevada ... -6.2 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
34.9% (#67) | 65.1% (#31) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
48.9% (#58) | 51.1% (#54) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
48.8% (#59) | 51.2% (#54) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
20.5% (#57) | 79.5% (#39) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
22.5% (#53) | 77.5% (#44) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
37.3% (#53) | 62.7% (#42) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
37.9% (#52) | 62.1% (#43) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
41.6% (#66) | 58.4% (#53) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend | Prior-only ranking with no forecast | |||
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 4.6 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.3-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 150 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | Saint Mary's Gaels | Nevada Wolf Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 |
| PPG | 97.5 | 86.0 |
| FG% | 57.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 30.8% |
| FT% | 69.4% | 60.9% |
| RPG | 35.5 | 47.0 |
| APG | 24.5 | 22.0 |
| SPG | 7.0 | 8.0 |
| BPG | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| TOPG | 9.5 | 8.0 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | Saint Mary's Gaels | Nevada Wolf Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 107.4 | 108.1 |
| Adj. Def Eff | 92.6 | 91.9 |
| Adj. Net Eff | 14.8 | 16.3 |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
Saint Mary's Gaels Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantas Juzenas | 14.5 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 33.5 |
| Joshua Dent | 12.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 |
| Jeremy Dent-Smith | 8.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 22.0 |
| Darius Bivins | 11.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 22.0 |
| Vangelis Zougris | 13.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 22.0 |
Nevada Wolf Pack Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Styles Phipps | 13.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 |
| Peter Bandelj | 9.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 |
| TJ Coulter | 14.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 22.0 |
| Vaughn Weems | 13.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 |
| Peyton White | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 |