Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan Sta... | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
13.5% (#11) | 86.5% (#1) | Duke Bl... -12.4 | 69-81 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
12.3% (#9) | 87.7% (#1) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
16.8% (#10) | 83.2% (#1) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
20.5% (#3) | 79.5% (#1) | Duke Bl... -14.9 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
21.0% (#3) | 79.0% (#1) | Duke Bl... -14.6 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
18.1% (#9) | 81.9% (#1) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
35.0% (#5) | 65.0% (#1) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
34.2% (#5) | 65.8% (#1) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
18.9% (#6) | 81.1% (#1) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
21.6% (#4) | 78.4% (#2) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
27.9% (#5) | 72.1% (#1) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
28.6% (#5) | 71.4% (#1) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
32.1% (#10) | 67.9% (#1) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend
2026-27 ratings to date
|
19.2% (#9) | 80.8% (#2) | - | - |
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 4.6 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.3-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 150 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | Michigan Sta... | Duke Blue Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| PPG | 93.5 | 98.5 |
| FG% | 54.6% | 55.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 34.1% |
| FT% | 59.4% | 71.6% |
| RPG | 49.0 | 45.0 |
| APG | 22.0 | 19.0 |
| SPG | 9.0 | 14.0 |
| BPG | 5.5 | 7.5 |
| TOPG | 13.0 | 14.0 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | Michigan Sta... | Duke Blue Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 114.2 | 116.5 |
| Adj. Def Eff | 85.8 | 83.5 |
| Adj. Net Eff | 28.4 | 32.9 |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
Michigan State Spartans Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 12.5 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 25.5 |
| Jasiah Jervis | 10.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 24.5 |
| Jordan Scott | 11.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 24.0 |
| Coen Carr | 11.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 23.5 |
| Anton Bonke | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 16.5 |
Duke Blue Devils Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ngongba II | 19.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 24.5 |
| John Blackwell | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 23.5 |
| Dame Sarr | 14.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 22.0 |
| Cay. Boozer | 10.0 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 |
| Sebastian Wilkins | 5.0 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 21.0 |