Model Predictions
| Model | UNC Wilmingt... | Wake Forest ... | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
13.5% (#323) | 86.5% (#222) | Wake Fo... -11.3 | 60-71 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
11.0% (#333) | 89.0% (#222) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
15.7% (#325) | 84.3% (#208) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
14.1% (#262) | 85.9% (#138) | Wake Fo... -19.9 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
14.5% (#259) | 85.5% (#137) | Wake Fo... -19.5 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
25.6% (#188) | 74.4% (#127) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
28.2% (#256) | 71.8% (#134) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
27.8% (#258) | 72.2% (#134) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
12.7% (#295) | 87.3% (#181) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
15.4% (#276) | 84.6% (#163) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
19.5% (#284) | 80.5% (#149) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
20.3% (#279) | 79.7% (#147) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
29.7% (#322) | 70.3% (#196) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend | Prior-only ranking with no forecast | |||
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 5.2 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.4-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 131 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | UNC Wilmingt... | Wake Forest ... |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| PPG | 78.5 | 75.0 |
| FG% | 50.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 32.6% |
| FT% | 56.1% | 69.4% |
| RPG | 35.0 | 34.0 |
| APG | 16.0 | 14.0 |
| SPG | 16.5 | 14.0 |
| BPG | 2.0 | 5.0 |
| TOPG | 17.5 | 14.0 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | UNC Wilmingt... | Wake Forest ... |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 106.1 | 107.3 |
| Adj. Def Eff | 93.9 | 92.7 |
| Adj. Net Eff | 12.3 | 14.5 |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
UNC Wilmington Seahawks Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiara Thompson | 12.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 23.5 |
| Loghan Johnson | 16.0 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 23.0 |
| Kimmie Hicks | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 22.0 |
| Sienna Dauer | 11.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 |
| Ebbony Wilson | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 19.5 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Carter | 12.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 29.5 |
| Aurora Sorbye | 10.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25.5 |
| Opal Bird | 7.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 23.5 |
| Breauna Ware | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 22.5 |
| Oshauna Holland | 13.5 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 |