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Pacific Tigers 11-19
@
2025-12-13
Nevada Wolf Pack 10-21

Model Predictions

Model Pacific Tigers Nevada Wolf Pack Spread Projected
Elo
2025-26 season-end ratings
 29.1% (#257) 70.9% (#255) Nevada ... -2.5 64-67
Bradley-Terry
2025-26 season-end ratings
 49.4% (#239) 50.6% (#268) - -
Margin
2025-26 season-end ratings
 45.5% (#200) 54.5% (#214) Nevada ... -1.0 -
Pythagorean
2025-26 season-end ratings
 48.6% (#249) 51.4% (#253) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2025-26 season-end ratings
 60.5% (#195) 39.5% (#224) - -
Log Adjusted
2025-26 season-end ratings
 60.6% (#195) 39.4% (#225) - -
Points Off/Def
2025-26 season-end ratings
 45.7% (#206) 54.3% (#226) - -

2025-26 season-end ratings: Spread: 5.1 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.3-point home edge (2024-25 margin fit); projected score: 2024-25's average total of 131 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Pacific Tigers Nevada Wolf Pack
Games 30 31
PPG 65.6 57.1
FG% 40.3% 39.0%
3PT% 32.2% 23.0%
FT% 76.7% 62.0%
RPG 36.1 36.5
APG 14.1 10.7
SPG 6.9 7.1
BPG 2.8 2.6
TOPG 17.1 16.0

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Pacific Tigers Nevada Wolf Pack
Adj. Off Eff 98.0 96.1
Adj. Def Eff 102.0 103.9
Adj. Net Eff -4.0 -7.7

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Pacific Tigers Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Daria Nestorov 10.4 2.6 4.9 1.7 0.1 29.9
Sydney Ward 11.3 6.8 1.6 1.1 1.1 27.5
Winner Bartholomew 13.3 5.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 24.4
Sophia Mindermann 8.9 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.0 22.8
Stella Szabo 4.3 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.1 22.3

Nevada Wolf Pack Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Skylar Durley 11.8 6.0 2.3 0.9 0.2 32.1
Izzy Sullivan 7.9 2.4 1.7 1.1 0.1 31.0
Ahrray Young 9.5 4.0 2.4 1.2 0.4 27.8
Makayla Carter 3.6 4.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 19.9
Gabby Ramos 4.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 15.8