🐻⬇️🏀

Cal Poly Mustangs 8-25
@
2022-11-30
Pepperdine Waves 9-22

Model Predictions

Model Cal Poly Mustangs Pepperdine Waves Spread Projected
Elo
2022-23 season-end ratings
 18.8% (#344) 81.2% (#276) Pepperd... -8.7 66-75
Bradley-Terry
2022-23 season-end ratings
 29.2% (#344) 70.8% (#300) - -
Margin
2022-23 season-end ratings
 16.2% (#279) 83.8% (#176) Pepperd... -9.0 -
Pythagorean
2022-23 season-end ratings
 36.7% (#321) 63.3% (#271) - -
Efficiency
2022-23 season-end ratings
 31.5% (#321) 68.5% (#272) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2022-23 season-end ratings
 11.1% (#298) 88.9% (#164) - -
Log Adjusted
2022-23 season-end ratings
 10.5% (#300) 89.5% (#163) - -
Points Off/Def
2022-23 season-end ratings
 31.4% (#288) 68.6% (#196) - -

2022-23 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.2 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.2-point home edge (2021-22 margin fit); projected score: 2021-22's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Cal Poly Mustangs Pepperdine Waves
Games 33 31
PPG 60.8 78.0
FG% 41.3% 46.5%
3PT% 29.4% 36.2%
FT% 74.4% 71.0%
RPG 32.7 35.8
APG 10.3 15.1
SPG 5.5 5.4
BPG 2.5 3.8
TOPG 13.8 14.1

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Cal Poly Mustangs Pepperdine Waves
Adj. Off Eff 94.0 100.0
Adj. Def Eff 106.0 100.0
Adj. Net Eff -12.0 0.1

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Cal Poly Mustangs Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Player #4397446 11.0 7.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 37.0
Brantly Stevenson 11.2 3.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 28.2
Kobe Sanders 7.7 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.3 27.8
Chance Hunter 8.2 4.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 26.5
Alimamy Koroma 10.8 4.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 26.0

Pepperdine Waves Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Houston Mallette 13.0 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.1 34.1
Mike Mitchell Jr. 11.4 4.1 5.0 1.1 0.1 33.6
Maxwell Lewis 17.1 5.7 2.8 0.8 0.8 31.3
Jevon Porter 12.1 7.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 28.3
M. Moore 5.0 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 23.8