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Cal Poly Mustangs 8-25
@
2023-03-02
UC San Diego Tritons 10-20

Model Predictions

Model Cal Poly Mustangs UC San Diego Tritons Spread Projected
Elo
2022-23 season-end ratings
 23.7% (#344) 76.3% (#308) UC San ... -6.6 67-74
Bradley-Terry
2022-23 season-end ratings
 31.8% (#344) 68.2% (#312) - -
Margin
2022-23 season-end ratings
 34.1% (#279) 65.9% (#261) UC San ... -3.6 -
Pythagorean
2022-23 season-end ratings
 42.0% (#321) 58.0% (#304) - -
Efficiency
2022-23 season-end ratings
 40.8% (#321) 59.2% (#304) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2022-23 season-end ratings
 39.2% (#298) 60.8% (#271) - -
Log Adjusted
2022-23 season-end ratings
 38.4% (#300) 61.6% (#270) - -
Points Off/Def
2022-23 season-end ratings
 41.6% (#288) 58.4% (#276) - -

2022-23 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.2 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.2-point home edge (2021-22 margin fit); projected score: 2021-22's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Cal Poly Mustangs UC San Diego Tritons
Games 33 30
PPG 60.8 68.6
FG% 41.3% 43.0%
3PT% 29.4% 32.8%
FT% 74.4% 73.9%
RPG 32.7 33.5
APG 10.3 12.0
SPG 5.5 5.8
BPG 2.5 2.2
TOPG 13.8 12.1

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Cal Poly Mustangs UC San Diego Tritons
Adj. Off Eff 94.0 95.1
Adj. Def Eff 106.0 104.9
Adj. Net Eff -12.0 -9.8

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Cal Poly Mustangs Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Player #4397446 11.0 7.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 37.0
Brantly Stevenson 11.2 3.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 28.2
Kobe Sanders 7.7 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.3 27.8
Chance Hunter 8.2 4.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 26.5
Alimamy Koroma 10.8 4.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 26.0

UC San Diego Tritons Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Bryce Pope 18.4 4.4 1.5 1.2 0.4 35.5
Jace Roquemore 6.4 3.0 2.6 1.1 0.1 33.4
Francis Nwaokorie 12.8 7.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 32.8
Roddie Anderson 13.1 3.8 3.6 1.2 0.2 31.3
Jake Kosakowski 5.2 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 22.8