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Penn State Nittany Lions 14-17
@
2021-12-18
VCU Rams 22-10

Model Predictions

Model Penn State N... VCU Rams Spread Projected
Elo
2021-22 season-end ratings
 17.2% (#118) 82.8% (#36) VCU Rams -9.6 66-76
Bradley-Terry
2021-22 season-end ratings
 24.4% (#127) 75.6% (#40) - -
Margin
2021-22 season-end ratings
 33.4% (#78) 66.6% (#61) VCU Rams -3.8 -
Pythagorean
2021-22 season-end ratings
 38.0% (#184) 62.0% (#70) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2021-22 season-end ratings
 38.6% (#76) 61.4% (#60) - -
Log Adjusted
2021-22 season-end ratings
 38.9% (#76) 61.1% (#62) - -
Points Off/Def
2021-22 season-end ratings
 38.8% (#84) 61.2% (#62) - -

2021-22 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.5 points per 100 Elo plus a 1.9-point home edge (2020-21 margin fit); projected score: 2020-21's average total of 142 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Penn State N... VCU Rams
Games 31 30
PPG 64.6 66.3
FG% 43.2% 45.8%
3PT% 34.2% 34.6%
FT% 73.5% 69.5%
RPG 35.3 32.5
APG 11.9 14.0
SPG 5.3 9.1
BPG 2.2 5.3
TOPG 11.8 15.3

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Penn State N... VCU Rams
Adj. Off Eff 106.4 107.6
Adj. Def Eff 93.6 92.4
Adj. Net Eff 12.9 15.1

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Penn State Nittany Lions Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Jalen Pickett 13.3 4.3 4.4 1.1 0.6 37.2
Seth Lundy 11.9 4.9 0.7 1.0 0.7 32.4
Sam Sessoms 11.6 3.1 2.6 0.8 0.1 27.6
John Harrar 10.6 10.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 27.0
Myles Dread 6.2 2.7 1.4 1.0 0.1 27.0

VCU Rams Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Ace Baldwin Jr. 11.4 3.5 5.5 2.5 0.2 33.5
Vince Williams Jr. 14.1 6.0 3.0 1.6 1.1 32.5
KeShawn Curry 11.0 3.1 1.5 1.4 0.3 30.2
Jayden Nunn 8.6 2.5 1.8 1.5 0.3 29.1
Hason Ward 6.5 4.8 0.8 0.9 1.5 20.3