🐻⬇️🏀

Villanova Wildcats 18-7
@
2021-01-05
DePaul Blue Demons 5-14

Model Predictions

Model Villanova Wildcats DePaul Blue Demons Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 76.4% (#18) 23.6% (#137) Villano... -9.2 75-66
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 83.4% (#20) 16.6% (#251) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 91.2% (#11) 8.8% (#129) Villano... -12.9 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 72.1% (#30) 27.9% (#279) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 92.9% (#17) 7.1% (#148) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 93.0% (#17) 7.0% (#147) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 73.8% (#12) 26.2% (#148) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Villanova Wildcats DePaul Blue Demons
Games 24 19
PPG 74.9 65.8
FG% 45.4% 41.7%
3PT% 35.5% 31.5%
FT% 76.5% 67.8%
RPG 33.8 37.7
APG 15.1 11.4
SPG 5.2 6.8
BPG 1.6 3.9
TOPG 9.2 15.8

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Villanova Wildcats DePaul Blue Demons
Adj. Off Eff 111.1 100.6
Adj. Def Eff 88.9 99.4
Adj. Net Eff 22.2 1.2

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Villanova Wildcats Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 15.7 8.5 2.2 1.0 0.6 34.5
Collin Gillespie 14.0 3.3 4.6 1.0 0.0 33.4
Justin Moore 12.9 4.1 3.0 0.6 0.4 32.8
Jermaine Samuels Jr. 12.0 6.4 2.5 0.6 0.3 29.3
Caleb Daniels 9.6 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 25.8

DePaul Blue Demons Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
C. Moore 14.4 3.6 4.2 1.1 0.0 32.3
Javon Freeman-Liberty 14.4 5.3 2.6 1.5 0.1 31.9
Romeo Weems 7.3 5.0 0.9 1.3 0.6 28.6
R. Salnave 6.3 3.0 1.3 0.9 0.1 23.4
Pauly Paulicap 7.2 6.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 22.2