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Tarleton State Texans 10-10
@
2020-12-15
Baylor Bears 28-2

Model Predictions

Model Tarleton Sta... Baylor Bears Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 1.0% (#216) 99.0% (#2) Baylor Bears -31.0 55-86
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 2.7% (#263) 97.3% (#2) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 0.3% (#234) 99.7% (#2) Baylor Bears -31.1 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 22.6% (#256) 77.4% (#3) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 1.0% (#249) 99.0% (#2) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 1.0% (#248) 99.0% (#2) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 6.3% (#237) 93.7% (#2) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Tarleton Sta... Baylor Bears
Games 20 28
PPG 73.4 83.3
FG% 46.9% 48.7%
3PT% 37.8% 40.7%
FT% 72.1% 71.5%
RPG 32.0 35.8
APG 14.7 17.2
SPG 10.5 9.1
BPG 2.7 3.8
TOPG 11.6 11.3

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Tarleton Sta... Baylor Bears
Adj. Off Eff 96.0 116.5
Adj. Def Eff 104.0 83.5
Adj. Net Eff -8.1 32.9

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Tarleton State Texans Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Montre' Gipson 15.3 3.8 3.0 1.4 0.0 32.8
Shakur Daniel 7.0 3.2 2.7 1.6 0.1 32.4
Shamir Bogues 6.9 3.3 2.1 1.9 0.5 26.0
Jonathan Jackson Jr. 9.3 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.6 23.2
Konstantin Dotsenko 10.6 2.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 23.0

Baylor Bears Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Davion Mitchell 13.9 2.7 5.4 1.9 0.3 32.9
MaCio Teague 15.9 4.0 1.7 0.8 0.4 31.7
Jared Butler 16.7 3.3 4.8 2.0 0.4 30.4
Mark Vital 5.6 6.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 23.4
Adam Flagler 9.1 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 22.8