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Syracuse Orange 18-10
@
2021-02-17
Louisville Cardinals 13-7

Model Predictions

Model Syracuse Orange Louisville Cardinals Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 53.5% (#24) 46.5% (#64) Syracuse Orange -2.0 72-70
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 47.3% (#49) 52.7% (#66) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 56.4% (#40) 43.6% (#64) Syracuse Orange -1.4 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 51.7% (#81) 48.3% (#132) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 61.7% (#38) 38.3% (#58) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 62.4% (#38) 37.6% (#58) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 51.4% (#37) 48.6% (#72) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Syracuse Orange Louisville Cardinals
Games 26 18
PPG 73.8 67.4
FG% 43.6% 43.2%
3PT% 33.7% 29.8%
FT% 77.3% 71.0%
RPG 35.2 37.6
APG 14.8 10.8
SPG 8.0 5.0
BPG 5.3 1.9
TOPG 11.2 11.4

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Syracuse Orange Louisville Cardinals
Adj. Off Eff 109.1 107.0
Adj. Def Eff 90.9 93.0
Adj. Net Eff 18.1 14.1

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Syracuse Orange Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Buddy Boeheim 17.8 2.8 2.6 1.3 0.0 36.7
Marek Dolezaj 9.7 5.1 3.1 1.2 0.9 35.3
Quincy Guerrier 13.7 8.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 33.0
Alan Griffin 13.0 5.7 1.7 1.2 1.7 29.3
Joseph Girard III 9.5 2.9 3.4 1.4 0.1 27.8

Louisville Cardinals Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Carlik Jones 16.8 4.9 4.5 1.4 0.1 37.5
David Johnson 12.6 5.8 3.2 1.1 0.3 35.1
Dre Davis 7.4 3.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 28.9
Samuell Williamson 9.6 8.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 28.6
Jae'Lyn Withers 10.1 7.7 0.5 0.9 0.4 25.7