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Louisville Cardinals 13-7
@
2021-02-03
Syracuse Orange 18-10

Model Predictions

Model Louisville Cardinals Syracuse Orange Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 21.6% (#64) 78.4% (#24) Syracuse Orange -7.9 67-75
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 38.6% (#66) 61.4% (#49) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 28.1% (#64) 71.9% (#40) Syracuse Orange -5.2 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 42.3% (#132) 57.7% (#81) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 32.3% (#58) 67.7% (#38) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 31.6% (#58) 68.4% (#38) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 35.4% (#72) 64.6% (#37) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Louisville Cardinals Syracuse Orange
Games 18 26
PPG 67.4 73.8
FG% 43.2% 43.6%
3PT% 29.8% 33.7%
FT% 71.0% 77.3%
RPG 37.6 35.2
APG 10.8 14.8
SPG 5.0 8.0
BPG 1.9 5.3
TOPG 11.4 11.2

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Louisville Cardinals Syracuse Orange
Adj. Off Eff 107.0 109.1
Adj. Def Eff 93.0 90.9
Adj. Net Eff 14.1 18.1

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Louisville Cardinals Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Carlik Jones 16.8 4.9 4.5 1.4 0.1 37.5
David Johnson 12.6 5.8 3.2 1.1 0.3 35.1
Dre Davis 7.4 3.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 28.9
Samuell Williamson 9.6 8.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 28.6
Jae'Lyn Withers 10.1 7.7 0.5 0.9 0.4 25.7

Syracuse Orange Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Buddy Boeheim 17.8 2.8 2.6 1.3 0.0 36.7
Marek Dolezaj 9.7 5.1 3.1 1.2 0.9 35.3
Quincy Guerrier 13.7 8.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 33.0
Alan Griffin 13.0 5.7 1.7 1.2 1.7 29.3
Joseph Girard III 9.5 2.9 3.4 1.4 0.1 27.8