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Tarleton State Texans 10-10
@
2020-12-08
Gonzaga Bulldogs 31-1

Model Predictions

Model Tarleton Sta... Gonzaga Bulldogs Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 1.0% (#216) 99.0% (#1) Gonzaga... -31.1 55-86
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 2.6% (#263) 97.4% (#1) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 0.2% (#234) 99.8% (#1) Gonzaga... -33.3 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 22.2% (#256) 77.8% (#1) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 1.0% (#249) 99.0% (#1) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 1.0% (#248) 99.0% (#1) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 5.2% (#237) 94.8% (#1) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Tarleton Sta... Gonzaga Bulldogs
Games 20 32
PPG 73.4 91.0
FG% 46.9% 54.9%
3PT% 37.8% 36.8%
FT% 72.1% 73.1%
RPG 32.0 37.2
APG 14.7 18.8
SPG 10.5 7.9
BPG 2.7 2.8
TOPG 11.6 12.0

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Tarleton Sta... Gonzaga Bulldogs
Adj. Off Eff 96.0 117.1
Adj. Def Eff 104.0 82.9
Adj. Net Eff -8.1 34.2

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Tarleton State Texans Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Montre' Gipson 15.3 3.8 3.0 1.4 0.0 32.8
Shakur Daniel 7.0 3.2 2.7 1.6 0.1 32.4
Shamir Bogues 6.9 3.3 2.1 1.9 0.5 26.0
Jonathan Jackson Jr. 9.3 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.6 23.2
Konstantin Dotsenko 10.6 2.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 23.0

Gonzaga Bulldogs Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Corey Kispert 18.6 5.0 1.8 0.9 0.4 31.8
Joel Ayayi 12.0 6.9 2.7 1.1 0.2 31.3
Andrew Nembhard 9.2 2.4 4.4 1.1 0.1 29.9
Jalen Suggs 14.4 5.3 4.5 1.9 0.3 28.9
Drew Timme 19.0 7.0 2.3 0.7 0.7 28.2