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Massachusetts Minutemen 8-7
@
2021-01-27
VCU Rams 19-7

Model Predictions

Model Massachusett... VCU Rams Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 11.9% (#138) 88.1% (#34) VCU Rams -12.9 64-77
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 18.9% (#170) 81.1% (#31) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 18.1% (#112) 81.9% (#51) VCU Rams -8.3 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 43.0% (#94) 57.0% (#47) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 15.0% (#108) 85.0% (#46) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 14.9% (#108) 85.1% (#48) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 30.4% (#110) 69.6% (#45) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Massachusett... VCU Rams
Games 15 25
PPG 76.7 71.5
FG% 42.8% 45.1%
3PT% 32.6% 32.9%
FT% 73.3% 76.2%
RPG 34.5 34.1
APG 14.9 13.5
SPG 7.3 9.2
BPG 4.1 5.4
TOPG 12.1 14.6

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Massachusett... VCU Rams
Adj. Off Eff 103.3 108.3
Adj. Def Eff 96.7 91.7
Adj. Net Eff 6.6 16.7

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Massachusetts Minutemen Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Carl Pierre 12.7 3.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 33.8
Tre Mitchell 18.8 7.2 2.2 1.2 1.5 32.2
Noah Fernandes 11.1 4.2 4.4 1.6 0.4 30.7
Ronnie DeGray III 8.7 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.3 27.4
Javohn Garcia 10.4 2.5 2.6 1.5 0.7 25.9

VCU Rams Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Bones Hyland 19.7 4.7 2.1 1.7 0.2 32.0
Ace Baldwin Jr. 6.6 3.3 4.5 2.2 0.0 30.1
Vince Williams Jr. 10.6 5.1 2.2 1.0 0.2 28.7
Hason Ward 6.4 5.1 1.0 0.6 2.3 21.8
Corey Douglas Jr. 4.4 3.3 0.6 0.6 1.3 19.1