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Texas State Bobcats 18-7
@
2021-02-20
Arkansas State Red Wolves 11-13

Model Predictions

Model Texas State Bobcats Arkansas Sta... Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 67.4% (#92) 32.6% (#207) Texas S... -6.1 74-67
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 69.7% (#86) 30.3% (#246) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 60.1% (#190) 39.9% (#254) Texas S... -2.3 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 58.2% (#88) 41.8% (#211) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 71.1% (#183) 28.9% (#258) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 71.1% (#183) 28.9% (#258) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 52.0% (#184) 48.0% (#256) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Texas State Bobcats Arkansas Sta...
Games 22 23
PPG 66.4 72.7
FG% 46.5% 45.0%
3PT% 38.5% 37.9%
FT% 72.0% 72.6%
RPG 32.5 36.7
APG 13.5 14.5
SPG 6.8 6.5
BPG 2.7 2.8
TOPG 13.0 13.0

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Texas State Bobcats Arkansas Sta...
Adj. Off Eff 99.0 95.5
Adj. Def Eff 101.0 104.5
Adj. Net Eff -2.1 -9.1

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Texas State Bobcats Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Mason Harrell 14.0 3.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 36.2
Shelby Adams 6.1 4.3 1.5 1.6 0.1 31.1
Caleb Asberry 13.0 4.5 1.9 1.1 0.2 29.1
Isiah Small 11.3 5.5 1.7 0.9 1.1 29.0
Marlin Davis 4.2 3.5 4.0 1.2 0.1 25.8

Arkansas State Red Wolves Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Marquis Eaton 14.1 3.1 5.0 1.0 0.3 31.7
Caleb Fields 11.0 3.1 3.5 0.9 0.0 29.9
Norchad Omier 12.4 12.0 0.7 1.1 1.4 26.4
Christian Willis 7.0 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 22.9
Keyon Wesley 7.5 4.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 21.9