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Gonzaga Bulldogs 31-1
@
2020-12-05
Baylor Bears 28-2

Model Predictions

Model Gonzaga Bulldogs Baylor Bears Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 36.5% (#1) 63.5% (#2) Baylor Bears -2.8 69-72
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 44.7% (#1) 55.3% (#2) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 51.5% (#1) 48.5% (#2) Gonzaga... -0.3 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 47.5% (#1) 52.5% (#3) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 51.7% (#1) 48.3% (#2) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 51.2% (#1) 48.8% (#2) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 48.1% (#1) 51.9% (#2) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Gonzaga Bulldogs Baylor Bears
Games 32 28
PPG 91.0 83.3
FG% 54.9% 48.7%
3PT% 36.8% 40.7%
FT% 73.1% 71.5%
RPG 37.2 35.8
APG 18.8 17.2
SPG 7.9 9.1
BPG 2.8 3.8
TOPG 12.0 11.3

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Gonzaga Bulldogs Baylor Bears
Adj. Off Eff 117.1 116.5
Adj. Def Eff 82.9 83.5
Adj. Net Eff 34.2 32.9

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Gonzaga Bulldogs Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Corey Kispert 18.6 5.0 1.8 0.9 0.4 31.8
Joel Ayayi 12.0 6.9 2.7 1.1 0.2 31.3
Andrew Nembhard 9.2 2.4 4.4 1.1 0.1 29.9
Jalen Suggs 14.4 5.3 4.5 1.9 0.3 28.9
Drew Timme 19.0 7.0 2.3 0.7 0.7 28.2

Baylor Bears Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Davion Mitchell 13.9 2.7 5.4 1.9 0.3 32.9
MaCio Teague 15.9 4.0 1.7 0.8 0.4 31.7
Jared Butler 16.7 3.3 4.8 2.0 0.4 30.4
Mark Vital 5.6 6.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 23.4
Adam Flagler 9.1 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 22.8