🐻⬇️🏀

West Virginia Mountaineers 19-10
@
2021-01-12
Baylor Bears 28-2

Model Predictions

Model West Virgini... Baylor Bears Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 10.8% (#22) 89.2% (#2) Baylor Bears -13.7 64-77
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 16.1% (#24) 83.9% (#2) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 11.3% (#29) 88.7% (#2) Baylor Bears -11.3 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 39.5% (#69) 60.5% (#3) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 12.1% (#19) 87.9% (#2) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 12.0% (#19) 88.0% (#2) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 24.5% (#30) 75.5% (#2) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat West Virgini... Baylor Bears
Games 27 28
PPG 76.8 83.3
FG% 42.3% 48.7%
3PT% 35.2% 40.7%
FT% 72.3% 71.5%
RPG 38.3 35.8
APG 14.2 17.2
SPG 7.9 9.1
BPG 2.9 3.8
TOPG 11.9 11.3

Efficiency Ratings

Metric West Virgini... Baylor Bears
Adj. Off Eff 110.7 116.5
Adj. Def Eff 89.3 83.5
Adj. Net Eff 21.4 32.9

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

West Virginia Mou... Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Miles McBride 15.9 3.9 4.8 1.9 0.3 34.2
Sean McNeil 12.2 2.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 29.4
D. Culver 14.3 9.4 1.1 0.8 0.8 26.3
Emmitt Matthews Jr. 7.7 4.0 1.1 0.6 0.4 25.9
T. Sherman 13.4 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.1 24.3

Baylor Bears Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Davion Mitchell 13.9 2.7 5.4 1.9 0.3 32.9
MaCio Teague 15.9 4.0 1.7 0.8 0.4 31.7
Jared Butler 16.7 3.3 4.8 2.0 0.4 30.4
M. Vital 5.6 6.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 23.4
Adam Flagler 9.1 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 22.8