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Alcorn State Braves 6-13
@
2021-02-17
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 4-21

Model Predictions

Model Alcorn State Braves Arkansas-Pin... Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 57.1% (#323) 42.9% (#341) Alcorn ... -3.1 72-69
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 57.4% (#294) 42.6% (#332) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 53.8% (#338) 46.2% (#340) Alcorn ... -0.8 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 66.3% (#315) 33.7% (#336) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 72.2% (#330) 27.8% (#342) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 72.3% (#331) 27.7% (#342) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 50.3% (#336) 49.7% (#340) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Alcorn State Braves Arkansas-Pin...
Games 15 18
PPG 67.1 61.2
FG% 40.4% 38.5%
3PT% 30.7% 30.4%
FT% 72.6% 70.1%
RPG 30.9 32.8
APG 9.4 9.8
SPG 7.3 6.2
BPG 1.7 3.3
TOPG 14.9 16.1

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Alcorn State Braves Arkansas-Pin...
Adj. Off Eff 89.8 86.1
Adj. Def Eff 110.2 113.9
Adj. Net Eff -20.3 -27.7

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Alcorn State Braves Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Troymain Crosby 18.9 5.5 0.6 1.0 0.0 29.5
Kurk Lee 9.9 2.2 3.9 0.5 0.0 28.0
Justin Thomas 4.1 2.6 2.9 0.9 0.3 25.7
Oddyst Walker 8.9 3.1 0.5 1.6 0.1 25.5
David Pierce 8.7 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 23.1

Arkansas-Pine Blu... Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Shaun Doss Jr. 16.3 6.5 1.4 1.0 0.7 34.0
Joshuwan Johnson 9.7 2.8 3.2 1.2 0.0 30.2
Markedric Bell 7.7 5.0 1.0 0.7 1.6 24.8
Dequan Morris 8.8 4.3 0.4 1.0 0.3 24.1
Jalen Lynn 7.2 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.0 23.3