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North Carolina Central Eagles 28-6
@
2014-01-04
Wagner Seahawks 19-12

Model Predictions

Model North Caroli... Wagner Seahawks Spread Projected
Elo
2013-14 season-end ratings
 48.1% (#41) 51.9% (#84) North C... -0.2 67-67
Bradley-Terry
2013-14 season-end ratings
 67.0% (#60) 33.0% (#167) - -
Margin
2013-14 season-end ratings
 69.9% (#93) 30.1% (#196) North C... -4.6 -
Pythagorean
2013-14 season-end ratings
 56.0% (#6) 44.0% (#105) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2013-14 season-end ratings
 81.0% (#94) 19.0% (#195) - -
Log Adjusted
2013-14 season-end ratings
 81.3% (#93) 18.7% (#195) - -
Points Off/Def
2013-14 season-end ratings
 59.9% (#90) 40.1% (#194) - -

2013-14 season-end ratings: Spread: 3.8 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.1-point home edge (2012-13 margin fit); projected score: 2012-13's average total of 134 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat North Caroli... Wagner Seahawks
Games 32 30
PPG 74.1 72.0
FG% 46.4% 42.3%
3PT% 33.7% 34.0%
FT% 73.1% 73.8%
RPG 34.9 39.7
APG 14.5 11.4
SPG 7.8 6.1
BPG 3.9 6.6
TOPG 11.2 12.6

Efficiency Ratings

Metric North Caroli... Wagner Seahawks
Adj. Off Eff 104.1 98.6
Adj. Def Eff 95.9 101.4
Adj. Net Eff 8.2 -2.8

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

North Carolina Ce... Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Jeremy Ingram 21.3 3.8 1.3 1.6 0.7 34.4
Emanuel Chapman 6.9 4.3 6.3 2.0 0.3 34.3
Karamo Jawara 7.6 4.7 2.5 0.9 0.7 29.6
Alfonzo Houston 9.7 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 26.5
J. Copeland 7.7 5.8 0.2 0.6 0.7 21.9

Wagner Seahawks Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Kenneth Ortiz 14.0 4.5 4.2 1.8 0.2 32.2
Jay Harris 10.4 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.0 29.6
Latif Rivers 13.3 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 27.9
Orlando Parker 7.2 7.0 0.4 0.6 0.9 25.3
Mario Moody 9.0 5.9 0.5 0.6 1.4 22.5