Ariel Jefferson
Team: Mississippi Valley State Devilettes
Position: F
Season Averages — 2025-2026
ESPN · NCAAW · completed source game rows, all recorded phases (including special games). Coverage reflects stored source games. Source phase breakdown: 31 unknown phase. These are not regular-season totals.
| GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO | FGA | Numbers | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 25.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 38.6% | 26.4% | 66.3% |
Plus/minus sample — 2025-2026: 30 games, 727.0 minutes, 2484.0 possessions. Other models may cover a different set of games.
Advanced Stats
Legacy model artifacts; separate from the counting cohort. Model output season: 2025-2026. Plus/minus scope: 30 games.
| RAPM | Rank | Minutes | Possessions | Model PM | Model PM/G | Model PM/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.32 | 4468 | 727 | 2483 | -380 | -12.7 | -20.9 |
RAPM = Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (points per 100 possessions above average)
Model Outputs — 2025-2026
CatalogOutput is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| RAPM Overall RAPM Overall Single-parameter regularized adjusted plus-minus estimate. More → | -5.32 (#4468) | SE 2.33 | Poss 2484 |
| RAPM Off/Def RAPM Off/Def Simultaneous offensive and defensive RAPM decomposition. More → | -5.32 (#4468) | Off -1.97 | Def -3.34 |
| Plus/Minus Rate Plus/Minus Rate Raw plus/minus rate baseline per 100 possessions. More → | -15.30 (#4350) | PM/G -12.7 | PM/40 -20.9 |
| Player Vector 2D Player Vector 2D Low-dimensional player embedding model with lineup composition and interaction effects. More → | 6.026 (#1247) | Vec (+0.41, +0.96) | Norm 1.04 |
| Points For Elo Points For Elo Online player rating for contribution to team scoring rate. More → | -4.15 (#4258) | Pts For -4.15 | Prevent -1.82 | Net -5.98 | Min 788 |
| Points Prevention Elo Points Prevention Elo Online player rating for suppressing the opponent's scoring rate. More → | -1.82 (#4019) | Pts For -4.15 | Prevent -1.82 | Net -5.98 | Min 788 |
| Points Net Elo Points Net Elo Net point-differential event Elo from points created plus points prevented. More → | -5.98 (#4238) | Pts For -4.15 | Prevent -1.82 | Net -5.98 | Min 788 |
| Rebounds For Elo Rebounds For Elo superseded Online player rating for contribution to team rebound rate. More → | -0.39 (#3349) | Reb For -0.39 | Prevent -1.51 | Net -1.90 | Min 788 |
| Rebound Prevention Elo Rebound Prevention Elo superseded Online player rating for suppressing the opponent's rebound rate. More → | -1.51 (#4150) | Reb For -0.39 | Prevent -1.51 | Net -1.90 | Min 788 |
| Offensive Rebounds For Elo Offensive Rebounds For Elo superseded Online player rating for contribution to own-team offensive rebounds. More → | +0.26 (#1008) | OReb For +0.26 | Prevent -1.30 | Net -1.05 | Min 788 |
| Offensive Rebound Prevention Elo Offensive Rebound Prevention Elo superseded Online player rating for preventing opponent offensive rebounds. More → | -1.30 (#4260) | OReb For +0.26 | Prevent -1.30 | Net -1.05 | Min 788 |
| Offensive Rebound Net Elo Offensive Rebound Net Elo superseded Net offensive-rebound event Elo from second chances created plus denied. More → | -1.05 (#4065) | OReb For +0.26 | Prevent -1.30 | Net -1.05 | Min 788 |
| Defensive Rebounds For Elo Defensive Rebounds For Elo superseded Online player rating for contribution to own-team defensive rebounds. More → | -0.65 (#3923) | DReb For -0.65 | Prevent -0.20 | Net -0.85 | Min 788 |
| Defensive Rebound Prevention Elo Defensive Rebound Prevention Elo superseded Online player rating for suppressing opponent defensive rebounds. More → | -0.20 (#3062) | DReb For -0.65 | Prevent -0.20 | Net -0.85 | Min 788 |
| Defensive Rebound Net Elo Defensive Rebound Net Elo superseded Net defensive-rebound event Elo from defensive boards created plus denied. More → | -0.85 (#3810) | DReb For -0.65 | Prevent -0.20 | Net -0.85 | Min 788 |
| Rebound Margin Elo Rebound Margin Elo superseded Net rebound-margin event Elo from rebounds created plus rebounds prevented. More → | -1.90 (#4023) | Reb For -0.39 | Prevent -1.51 | Net -1.90 | Min 788 |
| Assists For Elo Assists For Elo Online player rating for contribution to team assist rate. More → | -1.54 (#4267) | Ast For -1.54 | Prevent -0.21 | Net -1.75 | Min 788 |
| Assist Prevention Elo Assist Prevention Elo Online player rating for suppressing the opponent's assist rate. More → | -0.21 (#3210) | Ast For -1.54 | Prevent -0.21 | Net -1.75 | Min 788 |
| Assists Net Elo Assists Net Elo Net assist event Elo from assisted creation plus assisted-shot prevention. More → | -1.75 (#4201) | Ast For -1.54 | Prevent -0.21 | Net -1.75 | Min 788 |
| Threes For Elo Threes For Elo Online player rating for contribution to team made-threes rate. More → | -0.82 (#4187) | 3PM For -0.82 | Prevent +0.18 | Net -0.63 | Min 788 |
| Three Prevention Elo Three Prevention Elo Online player rating for suppressing the opponent's made-threes rate. More → | +0.18 (#874) | 3PM For -0.82 | Prevent +0.18 | Net -0.63 | Min 788 |
| Threes Net Elo Threes Net Elo Net made-three event Elo from threes created plus threes prevented. More → | -0.63 (#3993) | 3PM For -0.82 | Prevent +0.18 | Net -0.63 | Min 788 |
| Stocks For Elo Stocks For Elo Online player rating for contribution to team steals-plus-blocks rate. More → | -0.00 (#2105) | Stocks For -0.00 | Prevent -1.40 | Net -1.40 | Min 788 |
| Stocks Prevention Elo Stocks Prevention Elo Online player rating for suppressing opponent stocks. More → | -1.40 (#4272) | Stocks For -0.00 | Prevent -1.40 | Net -1.40 | Min 788 |
| Stocks Net Elo Stocks Net Elo Net stocks event Elo from stocks created plus stocks denied. More → | -1.40 (#4173) | Stocks For -0.00 | Prevent -1.40 | Net -1.40 | Min 788 |
| Ball Security Elo Ball Security Elo Online player rating for keeping own-team turnovers down. More → | -1.29 (#4231) | TOV For -1.29 | Prevent -0.11 | Net -1.40 | Min 788 |
| Turnover Force Elo Turnover Force Elo Online player rating for forcing opponent turnovers. More → | -0.11 (#2615) | TOV For -1.29 | Prevent -0.11 | Net -1.40 | Min 788 |
| Turnover Margin Elo Turnover Margin Elo Net turnover event Elo from ball security plus turnover force. More → | -1.40 (#4157) | TOV For -1.29 | Prevent -0.11 | Net -1.40 | Min 788 |
Shot Chart — 2025-2026
95/246 FG (38.6%), 209 points from the field · ESPN shot locations · compared with the 2025-2026 league average
| Zone | FGM | FGA | FG% | League FG% | +/- | % of FGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 35 | 70 | 50.0 | 58.6 | -8.6 | 28.5 |
| Paint (non-RA) | 32 | 64 | 50.0 | 40.9 | +9.1 | 26.0 |
| Mid-range left | 2 | 18 | 11.1 | 32.4 | -21.3 | 7.3 |
| Mid-range center | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 35.8 | -35.8 | 0.4 |
| Mid-range right | 7 | 21 | 33.3 | 31.8 | +1.5 | 8.5 |
| Left corner 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 33.0 | -33.0 | 1.6 |
| Right corner 3 | 4 | 10 | 40.0 | 32.6 | +7.4 | 4.1 |
| Above-break 3 left | 6 | 25 | 24.0 | 30.7 | -6.7 | 10.2 |
| Above-break 3 center | 2 | 5 | 40.0 | 30.4 | +9.6 | 2.0 |
| Above-break 3 right | 7 | 27 | 25.9 | 30.9 | -5.0 | 11.0 |
| Backcourt | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 31.6 | -31.6 | 0.4 |
Career Stats
ESPN · NCAAW · completed source game rows, all recorded phases (including special games). Coverage reflects stored source games. Source phase breakdown: 31 unknown phase. These are not regular-season totals. Other career leagues are available through the league links above.
| Season | League | Team | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-2026 | NCAAW | Mississippi Valley State Devilettes | 31 | 25.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 38.6% | 26.4% | 66.3% | 47.5 | 42.5 |
| 2024-2025 | NCAAW | Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes | 4 | 37.8 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 28.9% | 0.0% | 63.6% | 33.1 | 28.9 |
| 2023-2024 | NCAAW | Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes | 3 | 20.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 27.3% | - | 60.0% | 34.1 | 27.3 |
| 2022-2023 | NCAAW | Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes | 2 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 33.3% | - | 50.0% | 46.0 | 33.3 |
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
Game Log
ESPN · NCAAW · completed source game rows, all recorded phases (including special games). Coverage reflects stored source games. Source phase breakdown: 31 unknown phase. These are not regular-season totals.
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | @ | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L | 74-81 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | - |
| 2026-03-09 | vs | Prairie View A&M Lad | W | 63-49 | 15 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | - |
| 2026-03-05 | @ | Jackson State Lady T | W | 66-50 | 26 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8.0 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | @ | Alcorn State Lady Br | L | 56-67 | 35 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12.0 | - |
| 2026-02-28 | @ | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L | 48-68 | 27 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -3.0 | - |
| 2026-02-23 | @ | Grambling Lady Tiger | L | 59-84 | 22 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9.0 | - |
| 2026-02-21 | vs | Texas Southern Tiger | W | 78-64 | 20 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4.0 | - |
| 2026-02-19 | vs | Prairie View A&M Lad | W | 67-45 | 24 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 3-6 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 15.0 | - |
| 2026-02-14 | @ | Alabama A&M Bulldogs | L | 55-95 | 27 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5.0 | - |
| 2026-02-12 | @ | Alabama State Lady H | L | 70-86 | 19 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 3.0 | - |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Jackson State Lady T | L | 50-64 | 21 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Alcorn State Lady Br | L | 72-75 | 26 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10.0 | - |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L | 66-68 | 34 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 3-5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 12.0 | - |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Southern Jaguars | L | 46-69 | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | - |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Bethune-Cookman Wild | W | 64-55 | 26 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 4-6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 11.0 | - |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Florida A&M Rattlers | L | 74-88 | 28 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | - |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Prairie View A&M Lad | W | 80-73 | 21 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8.0 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Texas Southern Tiger | L | 62-72 | 27 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | - |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Alabama State Lady H | L | 50-83 | 29 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 1-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 6.0 | - |
| 2026-01-01 | vs | Alabama A&M Bulldogs | W | 74-72 | 37 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 17.0 | - |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | UAB Blazers | L | 62-86 | 30 | 4-14 | 2-5 | 4-8 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 14.0 | - |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Ole Miss Rebels | L | 34-102 | 30 | 1-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | - |
| 2025-12-14 | @ | Mercer Bears | L | 43-66 | 35 | 2-13 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3.0 | - |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Oklahoma State Cowgi | L | 46-133 | 26 | 2-10 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | - |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Tulsa Golden Hurrica | L | 53-101 | 26 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3.0 | - |
| 2025-12-02 | vs | Tarleton State Texan | L | 50-66 | 20 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15.0 | - |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Nicholls Colonels | L | 66-73 | 33 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10.0 | - |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Lipscomb Bisons | W | 72-68 | 34 | 8-11 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 20.0 | - |
| 2025-11-13 | @ | Auburn Tigers | L | 50-110 | 23 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4.0 | - |
| 2025-11-09 | @ | Mississippi State Bu | L | 43-107 | 23 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6.0 | - |
| 2025-11-06 | @ | Troy Trojans | L | 50-95 | 24 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | - |