🐻⬇️🏀

Jake Heidbreder

Jake Heidbreder

Team: Fresno State
Position: G

Season Averages — 2025-2026

ESPN · NCAAM · completed source game rows, all recorded phases (including special games). Coverage reflects stored source games. Source phase breakdown: 29 regular season, 1 unknown phase. These are not regular-season totals.

GP MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TO FGA Numbers FG% 3P% FT%
30 37.0 17.0 2.8 2.3 1.4 0.1 2.0 12.8 8.8 40.7% 31.9% 90.1%

Plus/minus sample — 2025-2026: 28 games, 993.7 minutes, 3432.4 possessions. Other models may cover a different set of games.

Advanced Stats

Legacy model artifacts; separate from the counting cohort. Model output season: 2025-2026. Plus/minus scope: 28 games.

RAPM Rank Minutes Possessions Model PM Model PM/G Model PM/40
-1.80 3426 993 3432 -16 -0.6 -0.6

RAPM = Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (points per 100 possessions above average)

Model Outputs — 2025-2026

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
RAPM Overall RAPM Overall Single-parameter regularized adjusted plus-minus estimate. SE 2.82 | Poss 3432 More → -1.80 (#3426) SE 2.82 | Poss 3432
RAPM Off/Def RAPM Off/Def Simultaneous offensive and defensive RAPM decomposition. Off -0.87 | Def -0.93 More → -1.80 (#3426) Off -0.87 | Def -0.93
Plus/Minus Rate Plus/Minus Rate Raw plus/minus rate baseline per 100 possessions. PM/G -0.6 | PM/40 -0.6 More → -0.47 (#2566) PM/G -0.6 | PM/40 -0.6
Player Vector 2D Player Vector 2D Low-dimensional player embedding model with lineup composition and interaction effects. Vec (-1.65, +3.65) | Norm 4.01 More → -17.698 (#2332) Vec (-1.65, +3.65) | Norm 4.01
Points For Elo Points For Elo Online player rating for contribution to team scoring rate. Pts For -1.08 | Prevent +2.31 | Net +1.23 | Min 328 More → -1.08 (#5783) Pts For -1.08 | Prevent +2.31 | Net +1.23 | Min 328
Points Prevention Elo Points Prevention Elo Online player rating for suppressing the opponent's scoring rate. Pts For -1.08 | Prevent +2.31 | Net +1.23 | Min 328 More → +2.31 (#85) Pts For -1.08 | Prevent +2.31 | Net +1.23 | Min 328
Points Net Elo Points Net Elo Net point-differential event Elo from points created plus points prevented. Pts For -1.08 | Prevent +2.31 | Net +1.23 | Min 328 More → +1.23 (#1030) Pts For -1.08 | Prevent +2.31 | Net +1.23 | Min 328
Rebounds For Elo Rebounds For Elo superseded Online player rating for contribution to team rebound rate. Reb For -0.57 | Prevent +0.86 | Net +0.30 | Min 328 More → -0.57 (#5770) Reb For -0.57 | Prevent +0.86 | Net +0.30 | Min 328
Rebound Prevention Elo Rebound Prevention Elo superseded Online player rating for suppressing the opponent's rebound rate. Reb For -0.57 | Prevent +0.86 | Net +0.30 | Min 328 More → +0.86 (#251) Reb For -0.57 | Prevent +0.86 | Net +0.30 | Min 328
Offensive Rebounds For Elo Offensive Rebounds For Elo superseded Online player rating for contribution to own-team offensive rebounds. OReb For -1.21 | Prevent +1.21 | Net +0.00 | Min 328 More → -1.21 (#6383) OReb For -1.21 | Prevent +1.21 | Net +0.00 | Min 328
Offensive Rebound Prevention Elo Offensive Rebound Prevention Elo superseded Online player rating for preventing opponent offensive rebounds. OReb For -1.21 | Prevent +1.21 | Net +0.00 | Min 328 More → +1.21 (#1) OReb For -1.21 | Prevent +1.21 | Net +0.00 | Min 328
Offensive Rebound Net Elo Offensive Rebound Net Elo superseded Net offensive-rebound event Elo from second chances created plus denied. OReb For -1.21 | Prevent +1.21 | Net +0.00 | Min 328 More → +0.00 (#2512) OReb For -1.21 | Prevent +1.21 | Net +0.00 | Min 328
Defensive Rebounds For Elo Defensive Rebounds For Elo superseded Online player rating for contribution to own-team defensive rebounds. DReb For -3.04 | Prevent +3.04 | Net +0.00 | Min 328 More → -3.04 (#6393) DReb For -3.04 | Prevent +3.04 | Net +0.00 | Min 328
Defensive Rebound Prevention Elo Defensive Rebound Prevention Elo superseded Online player rating for suppressing opponent defensive rebounds. DReb For -3.04 | Prevent +3.04 | Net +0.00 | Min 328 More → +3.04 (#1) DReb For -3.04 | Prevent +3.04 | Net +0.00 | Min 328
Defensive Rebound Net Elo Defensive Rebound Net Elo superseded Net defensive-rebound event Elo from defensive boards created plus denied. DReb For -3.04 | Prevent +3.04 | Net +0.00 | Min 328 More → +0.00 (#2588) DReb For -3.04 | Prevent +3.04 | Net +0.00 | Min 328
Rebound Margin Elo Rebound Margin Elo superseded Net rebound-margin event Elo from rebounds created plus rebounds prevented. Reb For -0.57 | Prevent +0.86 | Net +0.30 | Min 328 More → +0.30 (#2218) Reb For -0.57 | Prevent +0.86 | Net +0.30 | Min 328
Assists For Elo Assists For Elo Online player rating for contribution to team assist rate. Ast For -0.19 | Prevent +0.71 | Net +0.52 | Min 328 More → -0.19 (#4687) Ast For -0.19 | Prevent +0.71 | Net +0.52 | Min 328
Assist Prevention Elo Assist Prevention Elo Online player rating for suppressing the opponent's assist rate. Ast For -0.19 | Prevent +0.71 | Net +0.52 | Min 328 More → +0.71 (#230) Ast For -0.19 | Prevent +0.71 | Net +0.52 | Min 328
Assists Net Elo Assists Net Elo Net assist event Elo from assisted creation plus assisted-shot prevention. Ast For -0.19 | Prevent +0.71 | Net +0.52 | Min 328 More → +0.52 (#803) Ast For -0.19 | Prevent +0.71 | Net +0.52 | Min 328
Threes For Elo Threes For Elo Online player rating for contribution to team made-threes rate. 3PM For -0.20 | Prevent +0.38 | Net +0.18 | Min 328 More → -0.20 (#5185) 3PM For -0.20 | Prevent +0.38 | Net +0.18 | Min 328
Three Prevention Elo Three Prevention Elo Online player rating for suppressing the opponent's made-threes rate. 3PM For -0.20 | Prevent +0.38 | Net +0.18 | Min 328 More → +0.38 (#302) 3PM For -0.20 | Prevent +0.38 | Net +0.18 | Min 328
Threes Net Elo Threes Net Elo Net made-three event Elo from threes created plus threes prevented. 3PM For -0.20 | Prevent +0.38 | Net +0.18 | Min 328 More → +0.18 (#1606) 3PM For -0.20 | Prevent +0.38 | Net +0.18 | Min 328
Stocks For Elo Stocks For Elo Online player rating for contribution to team steals-plus-blocks rate. Stocks For -0.15 | Prevent +0.11 | Net -0.05 | Min 328 More → -0.15 (#4812) Stocks For -0.15 | Prevent +0.11 | Net -0.05 | Min 328
Stocks Prevention Elo Stocks Prevention Elo Online player rating for suppressing opponent stocks. Stocks For -0.15 | Prevent +0.11 | Net -0.05 | Min 328 More → +0.11 (#1990) Stocks For -0.15 | Prevent +0.11 | Net -0.05 | Min 328
Stocks Net Elo Stocks Net Elo Net stocks event Elo from stocks created plus stocks denied. Stocks For -0.15 | Prevent +0.11 | Net -0.05 | Min 328 More → -0.05 (#3754) Stocks For -0.15 | Prevent +0.11 | Net -0.05 | Min 328
Ball Security Elo Ball Security Elo Online player rating for keeping own-team turnovers down. TOV For -0.10 | Prevent +0.30 | Net +0.20 | Min 328 More → -0.10 (#4781) TOV For -0.10 | Prevent +0.30 | Net +0.20 | Min 328
Turnover Force Elo Turnover Force Elo Online player rating for forcing opponent turnovers. TOV For -0.10 | Prevent +0.30 | Net +0.20 | Min 328 More → +0.30 (#718) TOV For -0.10 | Prevent +0.30 | Net +0.20 | Min 328
Turnover Margin Elo Turnover Margin Elo Net turnover event Elo from ball security plus turnover force. TOV For -0.10 | Prevent +0.30 | Net +0.20 | Min 328 More → +0.20 (#1471) TOV For -0.10 | Prevent +0.30 | Net +0.20 | Min 328

Shot Chart — 2025-2026

153/376 FG (40.7%), 375 points from the field · ESPN shot locations · compared with the 2025-2026 league average

made missed · 1 long heave not drawn
67%44/66 42%37/87 60%3/5 0%0/6 60%3/5 17%2/12 39%23/59 12%4/32 36%37/104
FG% by zone: above below league average (zones with 5+ attempts)
Zone FGM FGA FG% League FG%+/- % of FGA
Restricted area 44 66 66.7 64.5 +2.2 17.6
Paint (non-RA) 37 87 42.5 45.2 -2.7 23.1
Mid-range left 3 5 60.0 36.6 +23.4 1.3
Mid-range center 0 0 - 38.6 - 0.0
Mid-range right 0 6 0.0 37.4 -37.4 1.6
Left corner 3 3 5 60.0 36.5 +23.5 1.3
Right corner 3 2 12 16.7 36.9 -20.2 3.2
Above-break 3 left 23 59 39.0 34.1 +4.9 15.7
Above-break 3 center 4 32 12.5 32.8 -20.3 8.5
Above-break 3 right 37 104 35.6 33.6 +2.0 27.7

Career Stats

ESPN · NCAAM · completed source game rows, all recorded phases (including special games). Coverage reflects stored source games. Source phase breakdown: 29 regular season, 1 unknown phase. These are not regular-season totals. Other career leagues are available through the league links above.

Season League Team GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers FG% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
2025-2026 NCAAM Fresno State 30 37.0 17.0 2.8 2.3 1.4 0.1 2.0 12.8 8.8 40.7% 31.9% 90.1% 57.1 49.7
2024-2025 NCAAM Clemson 32 14.0 4.1 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.4 3.4 2.8 40.4% 37.3% 100.0% 56.9 53.2
2022-2023 NCAAM Air Force 32 32.5 15.1 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 1.7 10.8 8.2 48.8% 39.9% 86.7% 63.5 59.7
2021-2022 NCAAM Air Force 28 34.5 10.6 3.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 1.2 7.4 7.8 50.0% 37.9% 80.0% 63.7 60.6

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

Game Log

ESPN · NCAAM · completed source game rows, all recorded phases (including special games). Coverage reflects stored source games. Source phase breakdown: 29 regular season, 1 unknown phase. These are not regular-season totals.

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
2026-03-11 @ Colorado State Rams L 63-67 40 8-15 4-9 6-6 3 3 1 0 4 26 14.0 -1.2
2026-03-07 @ Grand Canyon Lopes L 60-85 36 2-10 1-5 2-2 3 4 2 0 1 7 5.0 -24.3
2026-03-03 vs San José State Spart W 82-68 40 5-15 3-10 7-7 3 1 0 0 1 20 8.0 +11.4
2026-02-28 vs Boise State Broncos L 53-69 37 1-9 1-5 0-0 2 1 0 0 0 3 -3.0 -16.4
2026-02-24 @ Colorado State Rams L 70-74 36 3-10 1-5 4-5 7 0 2 1 2 11 9.0 -1.6
2026-02-21 vs New Mexico Lobos L 78-80 36 8-16 3-10 3-4 1 4 3 0 1 22 13.0 +13.1
2026-02-10 @ Utah State Aggies L 78-91 32 5-10 3-8 6-6 3 1 1 0 3 19 11.0 -13.5
2026-02-07 @ Nevada Wolf Pack L 59-69 37 3-11 2-8 5-6 3 1 0 0 3 13 3.0 -
2026-02-03 vs UNLV Rebels W 98-96 39 9-14 4-7 7-9 3 1 2 0 0 29 21.0 -8.8
2026-01-31 @ Air Force Falcons W 79-62 36 5-12 3-8 1-2 3 3 3 1 2 14 10.0 +1.3
2026-01-24 vs Grand Canyon Lopes L 57-68 38 1-5 0-3 10-10 1 2 1 0 2 12 9.0 -4.2
2026-01-21 @ New Mexico Lobos L 74-83 40 4-15 4-10 5-5 4 2 1 1 6 17 4.0 +0.9
2026-01-17 vs Wyoming Cowboys W 63-60 35 3-9 0-3 4-5 3 4 1 1 1 10 9.0 -0.3
2026-01-13 vs Colorado State Rams W 79-69 36 3-6 1-3 16-16 0 1 2 0 2 23 18.0 +4.5
2026-01-10 @ San Diego State Azte L 52-71 34 3-15 3-11 2-2 1 1 0 0 2 11 -4.0 -19.3
2026-01-06 @ San José State Spart W 70-55 40 2-11 0-6 2-2 1 4 3 0 3 6 0.0 +9.8
2026-01-03 vs Nevada Wolf Pack L 65-66 38 9-19 5-9 2-2 4 1 2 0 3 25 10.0 -6.4
2025-12-30 vs Utah State Aggies L 63-72 38 7-19 3-9 4-4 3 1 3 0 4 21 5.0 -1.4
2025-12-20 @ UNLV Rebels L 72-84 39 7-16 2-7 1-1 2 5 1 0 0 17 9.0 -4.1
2025-12-10 @ Cal State Northridge L 87-89 40 5-15 3-8 2-2 4 3 2 0 2 15 7.0 -3.6
2025-12-06 @ Arkansas Razorbacks L 58-82 34 1-10 0-5 6-6 1 1 2 0 1 8 1.0 -12.5
2025-11-30 vs Cal State Bakersfiel L 71-76 36 7-15 2-8 4-4 3 2 1 0 3 20 8.0 -
2025-11-26 vs Pepperdine Waves W 76-53 34 11-18 4-11 1-1 5 5 1 0 2 27 18.0 -
2025-11-21 vs LSU New Orleans Priv W 85-76 39 11-14 4-6 7-8 5 1 1 0 2 33 24.0 +7.8
2025-11-18 vs Stephen F. Austin Lu W 80-78 38 4-10 1-5 2-3 3 4 0 0 1 11 7.0 +7.0
2025-11-15 vs Utah Valley Wolverin W 75-74 39 6-11 2-6 4-6 2 1 3 0 2 18 11.0 -0.2
2025-11-12 vs UC San Diego Tritons L 73-78 39 5-15 2-10 4-4 2 2 0 0 4 16 1.0 -6.1
2025-11-08 vs Long Beach State Bea W 82-62 36 8-13 2-5 6-6 2 3 2 0 2 24 16.0 +16.1
2025-11-05 vs South Carolina Upsta L 66-67 37 3-13 3-10 3-4 2 0 2 0 2 12 1.0 -13.4
2025-11-03 vs Fresno Pacific Sunbi W 88-51 30 7-12 3-6 2-4 4 7 0 0 0 19 18.0 -