🐻⬇️🏀

Model Card

RAPM on the per-segment margin of made threes (own minus opponent per 100 possessions), fit only on games whose play-by-play made threes equal the box exactly. The ridge penalty is chosen by game-level cross-validation. Positive values mean a player's minutes raise their team's made threes relative to the opponent's. Held-out check (date split: fit before a date, score later segments; ncaam 2022-23 and 2023-24, ncaaw 2023-24): correlation with the actual per-segment margin 0.087-0.117 for this model, 0.076-0.106 for the event Elo it replaces. Small in absolute terms: a segment holds about one such event.

Validation is computed for team models, APM, RAPM and the event models. This page shows output coverage and site placement for this model.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Held-out player predictions

Plot Threes RAPM against any counting stat (one point per player, every season with a served list).

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the event models.

Stat RAPM or event Elo, per season

Each season serves one method for this stat: stat RAPM when its predictions followed the actual per-segment margin better on held-out games (fit before a date, scored on later segments) by more than two paired standard errors; within that the two are tied and the event Elo serves. Correlations are small in absolute terms; a segment holds about one such event.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).