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Model Card

Neutral-context sum of Threes For Elo and Three Prevention Elo. Useful for spotting spacing gravity plus perimeter containment in one scalar.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, a model trained on earlier games predicts each following week without learning from that week. Predictions use the players' observed minutes; each point is the minutes-weighted predicted and actual rate in that player's games. The source inputs were not verified as identical to the published model revision.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Held-out player predictions

Plot Threes Net Elo against any counting stat (one point per player, every season with a served list).

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the event models.

Stat RAPM or event Elo, per season

Each season serves one method for this stat: stat RAPM when its predictions followed the actual per-segment margin better on held-out games (fit before a date, scored on later segments) by more than two paired standard errors; within that the two are tied and the event Elo serves. Correlations are small in absolute terms; a segment holds about one such event.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).