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Player model

Threes Net Elo

Net made-three event Elo from threes created plus threes prevented.

Status implemented Short Name 3s Net
Rating Style impact Where Shown player pages, players leaderboard

Model Card

Neutral-context sum of Threes For Elo and Three Prevention Elo. Useful for spotting spacing gravity plus perimeter containment in one scalar.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, a model trained on earlier games predicts each following week without learning from that week. Predictions use the players' observed minutes; each point is the minutes-weighted predicted and actual rate in that player's games. The source inputs were not verified as identical to the published model revision.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Season

Held-out player predictions

Plot Threes Net Elo against any counting stat (one point per player, every season with a served list).

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the event models.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).

League Season Rows
WNBA 2026 217
NCAAW 2026-2027 2320
NCAAW 2025-2026 4434
NCAAM 2026-2027 2651
NCAAM 2025-2026 4582
NCAAM 2021-2022 4164
NCAAM 2020-2021 1811
NCAAM 2019-2020 1864
NCAAM 2018-2019 2417
NCAAM 2012-2013 3964
NBA 2026-2027 369
NBA 2025-2026 542