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Model Card

Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play. Neutral-context sum of its offense and defense sides. Useful for spotting spacing gravity plus perimeter containment in one scalar.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, a model trained on earlier games predicts each following week without learning from that week. Predictions use the players' observed minutes; each point is the minutes-weighted predicted and actual rate in that player's games. The source inputs were not verified as identical to the published model revision.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Fit diagnostics

No fit diagnostics for NCAAW 2016-2017 yet; the seasons above have them.

Held-out player predictions

Plot Threes Box Elo against any counting stat (one point per player; choose any season with a served list).

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the Box Elo forms.

Lineup RAPM vs Box Elo, per season

Both forms of this family are shown side by side wherever a season publishes them; this table is information, not a switch. Each column is the held-out correlation of that form's predictions with the actual per-segment margin (fit before a date, scored on later segments); within two paired standard errors the two predict equally well. Correlations are small in absolute terms: a segment holds about one such event. Held-out correlation does not penalize a Box form for not telling teammates apart; the season links show each form's team share.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).