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Model Card

Neutral-context sum of Threes For Elo and Three Prevention Elo. Useful for spotting spacing gravity plus perimeter containment in one scalar.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, a model trained on earlier games predicts each following week without learning from that week. Predictions use the players' observed minutes; each point is the minutes-weighted predicted and actual rate in that player's games. The source inputs were not verified as identical to the published model revision.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Held-out player predictions

Plot Threes Net Elo against any counting stat (one point per player, every season with a served list).

Not enough held-out play to show a validation plot. NCAAM 2026-2027: 0 eligible players. A player needs at least 100 held-out minutes. Computed 2026-11-12 13:17:50.719715+00:00.

NCAAM 2025-2026: 3767 players with at least 100 held-out minutes. Across players, predicted and actual correlate at r = 0.93 (weighted by held-out minutes). Across these player averages, weighted R² = 0.77 (relative to the weighted mean of actual held-out outcomes). Per held-out team game, squared error is 13.4% below predicting the league average. Each dot is a player (500 with the most held-out minutes are plotted; larger dots had more); on the dashed line, actual equals predicted. Select a dot for the player.

Held-out miss against playing time

Each dot is a player's actual minus predicted team minus opponent threes made per 100 possessions in the player's games against their held-out minutes (log scale). Orange points are the minutes-weighted mean miss of eight equal groups of players by playing time: a model that shrinks its low-minutes players too far, or not far enough, shows a slope.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).