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Model Card

Neutral-context sum of Threes For Elo and Three Prevention Elo. Useful for spotting spacing gravity plus perimeter containment in one scalar.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, a model trained on earlier games predicts each following week without learning from that week. Predictions use the players' observed minutes; each point is the minutes-weighted predicted and actual rate in that player's games. When validation was computed, its source snapshot was verified against this published model revision.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Held-out player predictions

Plot Threes Net Elo against any counting stat (one point per player, every season with a served list).

NBA 2026-2027: 184 players with at least 100 held-out minutes. Across players, predicted and actual correlate at r = 0.63 (weighted by held-out minutes). Across these player averages, weighted R² = 0.36 (relative to the weighted mean of actual held-out outcomes). Per held-out team game, squared error is 8.9% below predicting the league average. Each dot is a player (184 with the most held-out minutes are plotted; larger dots had more); on the dashed line, actual equals predicted. Select a dot for the player.

Held-out miss against playing time

Each dot is a player's actual minus predicted team minus opponent threes made per 100 possessions in the player's games against their held-out minutes (log scale). Orange points are the minutes-weighted mean miss of eight equal groups of players by playing time: a model that shrinks its low-minutes players too far, or not far enough, shows a slope.

Stat RAPM or event Elo, per season

Each season serves one method for this stat: stat RAPM when its predictions followed the actual per-segment margin better on held-out games (fit before a date, scored on later segments) by more than two paired standard errors; within that the two are tied and the event Elo serves. Correlations are small in absolute terms; a segment holds about one such event.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).