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Model Card

Sequential event model on team stocks per 100 possessions, where stocks = steals + blocks. Positive values mean a player's minutes tend to create more disruptive defensive events for their team.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, a model trained on earlier games predicts each following week without learning from that week. Predictions use the players' observed minutes; each point is the minutes-weighted predicted and actual rate in that player's games. The current source inputs are not verified as identical to the published model revision.

Selected League / Season

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Held-out player predictions

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the event models.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).