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Model Card

Classic player RAPM with one overall impact coefficient per player. This is the clean scalar adjusted-impact baseline.

Each player's rating starts from a share of the player's previous-season RAPM rather than zero (NBA 50%, NCAAM 50%, NCAAW 50%; other leagues start from zero), so a few games move it less. The offense/defense split still starts from zero.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, every week's lineups are predicted by a fit on the season's earlier play, with the served settings; each player's point is the predicted and actual margin per 100 possessions of the held-out play the player was on the floor for.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Held-out player predictions

Plot RAPM Overall against any counting stat (one point per player, every season with a served list).

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the event models.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).