Team model
Pythagorean
Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | PythRaw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Classic points-scored versus points-allowed baseline. Good sanity check for how much simple season scoring rates already explain wins.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.863 (#7) · 1469 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | - · 0 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | - · 0 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAMD3 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 0.937 | #1 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Margin | 0.923 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.915 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Log Adjusted | 0.915 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Elo | 0.898 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.879 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Pythagorean | 0.863 | #7 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Home Team Baseline | 0.582 | #8 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Pythagorean. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.658 | #13 | 0.649 | #11 | 21 | 4 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.881 | #7 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.789 | #8 | 0.967 | #16 | 0.786 | #16 | 14 | 1 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.794 | #9 | 0.641 | #15 | 0.627 | #15 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.863 | #7 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.787 | #8 | 0.625 | #15 | 0.821 | #16 | 14 | 1 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.752 | #9 | 0.662 | #11 | 0.622 | #12 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.833 | #4 | 0.685 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.743 | #7 | 0.652 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.726 | #7 | 0.699 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 0.742 | #6 | 0.665 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 0.702 | #6 | 0.663 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 0.642 | #7 | 0.659 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.769 | #6 | 0.657 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.730 | #5 | 0.653 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 0.732 | #6 | 0.653 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 0.673 | #7 | 0.652 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.732 | #6 | 0.651 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 0.688 | #4 | 0.650 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 0.675 | #6 | 0.651 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.693 | #6 | 0.657 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.669 | #6 | 0.662 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 0.647 | #7 | 0.667 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 0.618 | #8 | 0.671 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 0.619 | #8 | 0.671 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 0.583 | #8 | 0.670 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.637 | #7 | 0.670 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.606 | #7 | 0.670 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 0.609 | #7 | 0.668 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.753 | #4 | 0.614 | #16 | 0.634 | #15 | 26 | 2 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.532 | #6 | 0.680 | #4 | 0.661 | #2 | 22 | 5 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| WNBA | 2024 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2023-2024 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2023 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2022 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2021 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2020 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2019 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2018 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2017 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2016 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2015 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2014 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2013 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2012 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2011 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2010 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2009 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2008 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2007 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2006 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2005 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2004 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2003 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2002 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2001 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2000 | 16 |
| WNBA | 1999 | 12 |
| WNBA | 1998 | 10 |
| WNBA | 1997 | 8 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 763 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 763 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 772 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 772 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 602 |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 602 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 602 |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 605 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 384 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 394 |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 395 |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 399 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 402 |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 406 |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 411 |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 454 |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 481 |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 501 |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 501 |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 501 |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 501 |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 501 |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 501 |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 501 |
| NCAAW | 2003-2004 | 501 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 797 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 797 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 770 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 770 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 107 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 113 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 116 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 111 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 113 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 111 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 116 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 115 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2002-2003 | 327 |
| NCAAM | 2001-2002 | 323 |
| NCAAM | 2000-2001 | 318 |
| NCAAM | 1999-2000 | 318 |
| NCAAM | 1998-1999 | 310 |
| NCAAM | 1997-1998 | 307 |
| NCAAM | 1996-1997 | 306 |
| NCAAM | 1995-1996 | 305 |
| NCAAM | 1994-1995 | 302 |
| NCAAM | 1993-1994 | 301 |
| NCAAM | 1992-1993 | 298 |
| NCAAM | 1991-1992 | 298 |
| NCAAM | 1990-1991 | 295 |
| NCAAM | 1989-1990 | 292 |
| NCAAM | 1988-1989 | 293 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 32 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| NBA | 2018-2019 | 30 |
| NBA | 2017-2018 | 30 |
| NBA | 2016-2017 | 30 |
| NBA | 2015-2016 | 30 |
| NBA | 2014-2015 | 30 |
| NBA | 2013-2014 | 30 |
| NBA | 2012-2013 | 30 |
| NBA | 2011-2012 | 30 |
| NBA | 2010-2011 | 30 |
| NBA | 2009-2010 | 30 |
| NBA | 2008-2009 | 30 |
| NBA | 2007-2008 | 30 |
| NBA | 2006-2007 | 30 |
| NBA | 2005-2006 | 30 |
| NBA | 2004-2005 | 30 |
| NBA | 2003-2004 | 30 |
| NBA | 2002-2003 | 29 |
| NBA | 2001-2002 | 29 |
| NBA | 2000-2001 | 29 |
| NBA | 1999-2000 | 29 |
| NBA | 1998-1999 | 29 |
| NBA | 1997-1998 | 29 |
| NBA | 1996-1997 | 29 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 27 |
| GLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 26 |
| GLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 25 |
| GLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 21 |
| GLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 17 |
| GLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 13 |
| GLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 11 |
| GLEAGUE | 2006-2007 | 7 |
| GLEAGUE | 2005-2006 | 3 |
| GLEAGUE | 2004-2005 | 3 |
| GLEAGUE | 2003-2004 | 3 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 17 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2023-2024 | 28 |
| EUROCUP | 2022-2023 | 31 |
| EUROCUP | 2021-2022 | 36 |
| EUROCUP | 2020-2021 | 42 |
| EUROCUP | 2019-2020 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2018-2019 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2017-2018 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2016-2017 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2015-2016 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2014-2015 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2013-2014 | 56 |
| EUROCUP | 2012-2013 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2011-2012 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2010-2011 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2009-2010 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2008-2009 | 33 |
| EUROCUP | 2007-2008 | 54 |