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Model Card

Uses a log-style adjustment so blowouts do not dominate as hard as they do in raw margin style models. This is the closest current proxy for the log(margin) family discussed in planning.

Early in a season this model's ratings are blended with each team's preseason prior by games played: a team with n games keeps 4/(n+4) of its prior, so the order settles as games come in. In the pro leagues, whose prior is the team's Elo carried over from last season, it keeps 8/(n+8) in the NBA and WNBA, 16/(n+16) in G League and Euroleague and 6/(n+6) in Eurocup.

Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season. Current scope: Ranked Games. Only games where at least one team had an AP Poll rank on game day. All models are re-evaluated on that same subset, and AP Poll joins the comparison set here.

365 published model outputs for NCAAM 2026-2027.

Held-out game predictions

No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season.

League × Season Summary

Log Adjusted in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.

Output Coverage

Stored site-output rows for this model.