Log Adjusted
Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | PythLog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Uses a log-style adjustment so blowouts do not dominate as hard as they do in raw margin style models. This is the closest current proxy for the log(margin) family discussed in planning.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.870 (#4) · 5048 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.586 (#6) · 14 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.559 (#10) · 22 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 · 73.5% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NCAAW 2025-2026. The focus line is Log Adjusted. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 22 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 - Apr 5 | 0.823 | #14/16 | Elo (0.673) |
| Mar 25 - Mar 31 | 0.527 | #9/16 | Adjusted Context Blend (0.474) |
| Mar 18 - Mar 24 | 0.431 | #2/16 | Adjusted Efficiency (0.431) |
| Mar 11 - Mar 17 | 0.689 | #15/16 | Margin Recency (0.603) |
| Mar 4 - Mar 10 | 0.515 | #8/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.500) |
| Feb 25 - Mar 3 | 0.539 | #14/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.484) |
| Feb 18 - Feb 24 | 0.585 | #14/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.515) |
| Feb 11 - Feb 17 | 0.506 | #9/16 | Core Ensemble (0.485) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAW 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.573 | #4 | 0.499 | #1 | 22 |
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.566 | #3 | 0.500 | #2 | 22 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.539 | #1 | 0.515 | #3 | 22 |
| Margin | 0.878 | #1 | 0.588 | #7 | 0.517 | #4 | 22 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.870 | #5 | 0.578 | #5 | 0.542 | #5 | 22 |
| Log Adjusted | 0.870 | #4 | 0.586 | #6 | 0.559 | #10 | 22 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Log Adjusted. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.654 | #12 | 0.692 | #15 | 21 | 1 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.942 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.800 | #6 | 0.566 | #14 | 0.643 | #12 | 14 | 1 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.870 | #4 | 0.586 | #6 | 0.559 | #10 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.915 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.794 | #7 | 0.584 | #14 | 0.594 | #9 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.814 | #4 | 0.537 | #1 | 0.587 | #8 | 22 | 2 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.870 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.760 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.745 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 0.758 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 0.717 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 0.689 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.794 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.735 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 0.750 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 0.694 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.774 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 0.714 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 0.691 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.715 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.680 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 0.655 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 0.661 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 0.652 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 0.607 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.658 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.647 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 0.652 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.752 | #6 | 0.608 | #13 | 0.625 | #12 | 26 | 4 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.541 | #3 | 0.647 | #1 | 0.683 | #11 | 22 | 2 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 763 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 763 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 772 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 772 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 110 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 797 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 797 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 770 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 770 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 107 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 113 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 116 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 111 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 113 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 111 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 116 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 115 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 118 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 28 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 18 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 20 |