Team model
Efficiency
Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | Eff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Transforms raw scoring into points-per-possession style efficiency before building win-strength estimates. This is the pace-adjusted baseline before opponent correction.
Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.
| Full-season AUC | 0.759 (#8 of 17) · 292 games |
|---|---|
| Full-season log loss | 0.582 |
| Final-week AUC | 0.500 (#11) · 3 games |
Peers in WNBA 2026
Every model on the same games, ordered by full-season AUC.
| Model | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | AUC final wk | Final wk rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Off/Def | 0.763 | #1 | 0.590 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency | 0.762 | #2 | 0.592 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Margin Recency | 0.762 | #3 | 0.588 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Recency Ensemble | 0.762 | #4 | 0.580 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Core Ensemble | 0.761 | #5 | 0.580 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Margin | 0.761 | #6 | 0.589 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Pythagorean | 0.760 | #7 | 0.608 | 0.500 | #11 |
| Efficiency | 0.759 | #8 | 0.582 | 0.500 | #11 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.759 | #9 | 0.593 | 0.500 | #11 |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry | 0.759 | #10 | 0.584 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.758 | #11 | 0.585 | 0.500 | #11 |
| Log Adjusted | 0.758 | #12 | 0.585 | 0.500 | #11 |
| Elo | 0.753 | #13 | 0.586 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Adjusted Context Blend | 0.751 | #14 | 0.591 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.745 | #15 | 0.590 | 0.500 | #11 |
| Bradley-Terry Recency | 0.737 | #16 | 0.598 | 0.500 | #11 |
| Home Team Baseline | 0.584 | #17 | 0.680 | 1.000 | #1 |
League × Season Summary
Efficiency in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.
| League | Season | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | Games | AUC final wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2026 | 0.759 | #8/17 | 0.582 | 292 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2025 | 0.681 | #15/17 | 0.715 | 260 | - |
| WNBA | 2024 | 0.742 | #13/17 | 0.636 | 198 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2023 | 0.736 | #13/17 | 0.616 | 207 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2022 | 0.686 | #3/17 | 0.650 | 189 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2021 | 0.708 | #3/17 | 0.642 | 159 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2020 | 0.746 | #2/17 | 0.608 | 81 | - |
| WNBA | 2019 | 0.687 | #3/17 | 0.664 | 180 | - |
| WNBA | 2017 | 0.707 | #10/17 | 0.649 | 174 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2014 | 0.642 | #8/17 | 0.685 | 179 | - |
| WNBA | 2013 | 0.661 | #12/17 | 0.723 | 194 | - |
| WNBA | 2012 | 0.690 | #10/17 | 0.672 | 179 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2011 | 0.720 | #12/17 | 0.622 | 183 | - |
| WNBA | 2010 | 0.714 | #11/17 | 0.653 | 171 | - |
| WNBA | 2009 | 0.552 | #17/17 | 0.742 | 196 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2008 | 0.598 | #15/17 | 0.719 | 208 | 1.000 |
| WNBA | 2007 | 0.550 | #13/17 | 0.766 | 194 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2006 | 0.673 | #16/17 | 0.696 | 205 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2004 | 0.524 | #12/17 | 0.767 | 199 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 2002 | 0.500 | #17/17 | 0.693 | 211 | 0.500 |
| WNBA | 1997 | 0.597 | #12/17 | 0.781 | 78 | 0.667 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.813 | #11/17 | 0.596 | 4742 | 0.667 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 0.810 | #12/17 | 0.597 | 4691 | 0.918 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 0.794 | #14/17 | 0.615 | 4590 | 0.500 |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 0.796 | #12/17 | 0.602 | 4508 | 0.750 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.746 | #11/17 | 0.653 | 4785 | 0.667 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.733 | #13/17 | 0.660 | 4632 | 0.889 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 0.685 | #10/17 | 0.651 | 1150 | - |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 0.624 | #16/17 | 0.734 | 955 | 0.500 |
| NBA | 2018-2019 | 0.643 | #16/17 | 0.748 | 1146 | 0.500 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.619 | #13/17 | 0.717 | 423 | 0.667 |
| GLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 0.628 | #8/17 | 0.682 | 378 | 0.500 |
| GLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 0.648 | #11/17 | 0.685 | 352 | 0.750 |
| GLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 0.625 | #4/17 | 0.697 | 348 | - |
| GLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 0.618 | #6/17 | 0.762 | 18 | 0.618 |
| GLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 0.624 | #8/17 | 0.684 | 459 | 0.487 |
| GLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 0.617 | #11/17 | 0.694 | 583 | 0.500 |
| GLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 0.573 | #8/17 | 0.718 | 510 | 1.000 |
| GLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 0.660 | #5/17 | 0.669 | 487 | 0.500 |
| GLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 0.667 | #8/17 | 0.669 | 430 | 0.500 |
| GLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 0.669 | #16/17 | 0.686 | 394 | 1.000 |
| GLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 0.580 | #15/17 | 0.722 | 372 | 1.000 |
| GLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 0.621 | #16/17 | 0.715 | 350 | - |
| GLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 0.605 | #13/17 | 0.725 | 346 | 0.667 |
| GLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 0.703 | #11/17 | 0.686 | 352 | 0.500 |
| GLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 0.681 | #15/17 | 0.639 | 344 | 1.000 |
| GLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 0.606 | #11/17 | 0.703 | 337 | 1.000 |
| GLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 0.711 | #11/17 | 0.688 | 299 | 0.750 |
| GLEAGUE | 2005-2006 | 0.779 | #5/17 | 0.577 | 165 | - |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2026-2027 | 0.713 | #7/17 | 0.683 | 30 | 0.656 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.617 | #13/17 | 0.731 | 342 | 1.000 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 0.648 | #10/17 | 0.668 | 285 | 0.250 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 0.671 | #14/17 | 0.689 | 287 | 0.333 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 0.599 | #13/17 | 0.753 | 283 | 0.333 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 0.640 | #9/17 | 0.747 | 254 | 0.333 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 0.636 | #12/17 | 0.708 | 290 | 1.000 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 0.697 | #10/17 | 0.696 | 216 | 0.661 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 0.754 | #10/17 | 0.624 | 220 | - |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 0.645 | #9/17 | 0.738 | 220 | 0.250 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 0.655 | #12/17 | 0.696 | 219 | 0.000 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 0.668 | #11/17 | 0.752 | 202 | 1.000 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 0.720 | #13/17 | 0.676 | 203 | 0.000 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 0.716 | #12/17 | 0.703 | 205 | 0.333 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 0.713 | #14/17 | 0.697 | 205 | - |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 0.754 | #11/17 | 0.671 | 152 | 0.000 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 0.658 | #10/17 | 0.777 | 153 | 1.000 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 0.712 | #10/17 | 0.742 | 152 | - |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 0.717 | #11/17 | 0.731 | 152 | 1.000 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 0.722 | #9/17 | 0.690 | 195 | 1.000 |
| EUROCUP | 2026-2027 | 0.917 | #3/17 | 0.492 | 16 | 0.917 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 0.728 | #2/17 | 0.714 | 161 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 0.704 | #5/17 | 0.768 | 156 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2023-2024 | 0.740 | #11/17 | 0.671 | 156 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2022-2023 | 0.692 | #13/17 | 0.677 | 155 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2021-2022 | 0.656 | #13/17 | 0.745 | 149 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2020-2021 | 0.719 | #7/17 | 0.649 | 140 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2019-2020 | 0.558 | #13/17 | 0.797 | 120 | 0.533 |
| EUROCUP | 2018-2019 | 0.760 | #10/17 | 0.624 | 150 | 0.500 |
| EUROCUP | 2017-2018 | 0.744 | #9/17 | 0.636 | 136 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2016-2017 | 0.714 | #12/17 | 0.690 | 114 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2015-2016 | 0.665 | #9/17 | 0.788 | 226 | 0.500 |
| EUROCUP | 2014-2015 | 0.677 | #11/17 | 0.749 | 226 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2013-2014 | 0.608 | #13/17 | 0.891 | 262 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2012-2013 | 0.594 | #1/17 | 0.818 | 93 | - |
| EUROCUP | 2011-2012 | 0.677 | #12/17 | 0.767 | 92 | 0.000 |
| EUROCUP | 2010-2011 | 0.613 | #14/17 | 0.854 | 93 | 1.000 |
| EUROCUP | 2009-2010 | 0.588 | #14/17 | 0.835 | 92 | 0.667 |
| EUROCUP | 2008-2009 | 0.671 | #13/17 | 0.785 | 102 | 0.417 |
| EUROCUP | 2007-2008 | 0.736 | #9/17 | 0.723 | 245 | 1.000 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2026 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| WNBA | 1997 | 8 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 603 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 416 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2023-2024 | 421 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 537 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 293 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2023-2024 | 291 |
| NCAAW | 2026-2027 | 174 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 360 |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 361 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 68 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 403 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2023-2024 | 404 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 280 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 294 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2023-2024 | 292 |
| NCAAM | 2026-2027 | 242 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 363 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 9 |
| NBA | 2026-2027 | 30 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| NBA | 2018-2019 | 30 |
| NBA | 2008-2009 | 30 |
| NBA | 2007-2008 | 30 |
| NBA | 2006-2007 | 30 |
| NBA | 2005-2006 | 30 |
| NBA | 2004-2005 | 30 |
| NBA | 2003-2004 | 29 |
| NBA | 2002-2003 | 29 |
| NBA | 2001-2002 | 29 |
| NBA | 2000-2001 | 29 |
| NBA | 1999-2000 | 29 |
| NBA | 1998-1999 | 29 |
| NBA | 1997-1998 | 29 |
| NBA | 1996-1997 | 29 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| GLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 28 |
| GLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 28 |
| GLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 27 |
| GLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 26 |
| GLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 22 |
| GLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 19 |
| GLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 17 |
| GLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 14 |
| GLEAGUE | 2005-2006 | 8 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2026-2027 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2026-2027 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2023-2024 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2022-2023 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2021-2022 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2020-2021 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2019-2020 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2018-2019 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2017-2018 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2016-2017 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2015-2016 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2014-2015 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2013-2014 | 56 |
| EUROCUP | 2012-2013 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2011-2012 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2010-2011 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2009-2010 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2008-2009 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2007-2008 | 54 |