Efficiency
Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | Eff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Transforms raw scoring into points-per-possession style efficiency before building win-strength estimates. This is the pace-adjusted baseline before opponent correction.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.796 (#6) · 5361 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | - · 0 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | - · 0 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NCAAM 2025-2026. The focus line is Efficiency. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 22 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAM 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 0.822 | #2 | 0.577 | #4 | 0.548 | #1 | 22 |
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.620 | #6 | 0.551 | #2 | 22 |
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.637 | #7 | 0.553 | #3 | 22 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.641 | #8 | 0.554 | #4 | 22 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.812 | #5 | 0.579 | #5 | 0.561 | #5 | 22 |
| Efficiency | 0.796 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Efficiency. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.840 | #8 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.638 | #9 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.796 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.808 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.758 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.780 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.755 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.518 | #8 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 603 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 439 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 537 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 391 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 68 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 502 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 288 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 422 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 363 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 346 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 73 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 79 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 80 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 84 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 93 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 92 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 72 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 88 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 326 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 277 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 335 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 320 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 277 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 298 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 276 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 320 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 275 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 9 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 28 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 29 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 18 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 20 |