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Team model

Adjusted Efficiency

Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components.

Status implemented Short Name PythAdj
Rating Style probability Where Shown teams rankings, team pages, model performance

Model Card

Best current in-repo adjusted-efficiency baseline: adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, opponent correction, and pythagorean-style conversion back to win strength.

Early in a season this model's ratings are blended with each team's preseason prior by games played: a team with n games keeps 4/(n+4) of its prior, so the order settles as games come in. In the pro leagues, whose prior is the team's Elo carried over from last season, it keeps 8/(n+8) in the NBA and WNBA, 16/(n+16) in G League and Euroleague and 6/(n+6) in Eurocup.

Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.

295 published model outputs for NCAAMD2 2024-2025.

Held-out game predictions

No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season.

League × Season Summary

Adjusted Efficiency in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.

League Season AUC Rank LogLoss Games AUC final wk
WNBA 2026 0.763 #9/16 0.586 291 0.500
WNBA 2025 0.689 #12/16 0.640 259 -
WNBA 2024 0.756 #4/16 0.592 197 0.500
WNBA 2023 0.755 #2/16 0.595 206 0.500
WNBA 2022 0.697 #3/16 0.615 189 0.500
WNBA 2021 0.709 #5/16 0.621 159 0.500
WNBA 2020 0.731 #4/16 0.580 81 -
WNBA 2019 0.694 #4/16 0.628 185 0.500
WNBA 2018 0.648 #9/16 0.665 166 -
WNBA 2017 0.717 #9/16 0.612 174 0.500
WNBA 2016 0.674 #6/16 0.633 171 0.500
WNBA 2015 0.577 #14/16 0.689 169 0.500
WNBA 2014 0.652 #5/16 0.651 179 -
WNBA 2013 0.662 #11/16 0.655 194 -
WNBA 2012 0.698 #10/16 0.611 179 0.500
WNBA 2011 0.726 #13/16 0.598 183 -
WNBA 2010 0.714 #7/16 0.632 171 -
WNBA 2009 0.568 #13/16 0.698 196 0.500
WNBA 2008 0.618 #10/16 0.670 208 1.000
WNBA 2007 0.549 #14/16 0.706 194 0.500
WNBA 2006 0.686 #12/16 0.641 205 0.500
WNBA 2005 0.698 #13/16 0.625 186 0.500
WNBA 2004 0.545 #11/16 0.708 199 0.500
WNBA 2003 0.600 #16/16 0.688 200 0.500
WNBA 2002 0.610 #15/16 0.695 211 1.000
WNBA 2001 0.713 #10/16 0.629 194 0.917
WNBA 2000 0.758 #13/16 0.578 181 1.000
WNBA 1999 0.641 #12/16 0.690 138 0.667
WNBA 1998 0.780 #12/16 0.566 106 0.867
WNBA 1997 0.602 #9/16 0.815 78 0.667
NCAAWD3 2022-2023 0.886 #7/16 0.425 3015 0.867
NCAAWD3 2021-2022 0.872 #7/16 0.448 2328 1.000
NCAAWD3 2020-2021 - - - 0 0.969
NCAAWD3 2019-2020 0.876 #8/16 0.442 2953 0.855
NCAAWD3 2018-2019 0.867 #5/16 0.459 2659 0.700
NCAAWD3 2017-2018 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD3 2016-2017 0.864 #7/16 0.466 2423 -
NCAAWD3 2015-2016 0.855 #7/16 0.466 1888 -
NCAAWD3 2014-2015 0.850 #7/16 0.479 1325 -
NCAAWD3 2013-2014 0.857 #8/16 0.470 2193 0.000
NCAAWD3 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD2 2022-2023 0.814 #8/16 0.536 3336 -
NCAAWD2 2021-2022 0.815 #8/16 0.535 2624 0.700
NCAAWD2 2020-2021 0.802 #8/16 0.543 1499 -
NCAAWD2 2019-2020 0.840 #7/16 0.496 3154 0.823
NCAAWD2 2018-2019 0.836 #7/16 0.503 3137 0.833
NCAAWD2 2017-2018 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD2 2016-2017 0.821 #7/16 0.523 3208 1.000
NCAAWD2 2015-2016 0.796 #7/16 0.548 1815 -
NCAAWD2 2014-2015 0.786 #8/16 0.569 1508 -
NCAAWD2 2013-2014 - - - 0 0.889
NCAAWD2 2012-2013 - - - 0 0.000
NCAAW 2025-2026 0.846 #8/16 0.482 4740 0.771
NCAAW 2024-2025 0.847 #8/16 0.480 4691 0.939
NCAAW 2023-2024 0.832 #8/16 0.502 4590 0.556
NCAAW 2022-2023 0.828 #8/16 0.548 4508 0.800
NCAAW 2021-2022 0.821 #9/16 0.570 3969 0.958
NCAAW 2020-2021 0.822 #6/16 0.549 2838 0.667
NCAAW 2019-2020 0.824 #8/16 0.548 4254 0.847
NCAAW 2018-2019 0.846 #8/16 0.514 4209 0.800
NCAAW 2017-2018 0.849 #9/16 0.505 4136 0.357
NCAAW 2016-2017 0.833 #8/16 0.541 4117 0.867
NCAAW 2015-2016 0.839 #8/16 0.523 4093 0.667
NCAAW 2014-2015 0.832 #8/16 0.530 4106 0.750
NCAAW 2013-2014 0.825 #9/16 0.539 4268 1.000
NCAAW 2012-2013 0.823 #9/16 0.561 4046 1.000
NCAAW 2011-2012 0.832 #9/16 0.540 3942 0.625
NCAAW 2010-2011 0.837 #8/16 0.535 4019 0.250
NCAAW 2009-2010 0.818 #8/16 0.563 4042 -
NCAAW 2008-2009 0.828 #9/16 0.543 4005 1.000
NCAAW 2007-2008 0.834 #9/16 0.533 4036 0.500
NCAAW 2006-2007 0.837 #9/16 0.526 3896 0.625
NCAAW 2005-2006 0.823 #8/16 0.550 4126 -
NCAAW 2004-2005 0.821 #8/16 0.566 3807 0.333
NCAAMD3 2022-2023 0.808 #7/16 0.533 3688 1.000
NCAAMD3 2021-2022 0.808 #7/16 0.536 3282 -
NCAAMD3 2020-2021 - - - 0 -
NCAAMD3 2019-2020 0.786 #8/16 0.560 3910 0.803
NCAAMD3 2018-2019 0.802 #7/16 0.546 3741 0.500
NCAAMD3 2017-2018 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAMD3 2016-2017 0.779 #8/16 0.563 3460 -
NCAAMD3 2015-2016 0.757 #8/16 0.584 2779 -
NCAAMD3 2014-2015 0.782 #7/16 0.566 2420 1.000
NCAAMD3 2013-2014 0.808 #7/16 0.534 3043 1.000
NCAAMD3 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAMD2 2022-2023 0.771 #9/16 0.572 3514 1.000
NCAAMD2 2021-2022 0.783 #8/16 0.562 2881 0.750
NCAAMD2 2020-2021 0.738 #8/16 0.600 1531 1.000
NCAAMD2 2019-2020 0.772 #9/16 0.573 3556 0.824
NCAAMD2 2018-2019 0.783 #8/16 0.560 3571 0.917
NCAAMD2 2017-2018 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAMD2 2016-2017 0.786 #8/16 0.557 3474 1.000
NCAAMD2 2015-2016 0.743 #8/16 0.598 3259 1.000
NCAAMD2 2014-2015 0.774 #7/16 0.567 1991 1.000
NCAAMD2 2013-2014 0.765 #8/16 0.576 1496 0.600
NCAAMD2 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAM 2025-2026 0.768 #9/16 0.569 4785 0.929
NCAAM 2024-2025 0.772 #10/16 0.565 4786 0.611
NCAAM 2022-2023 0.754 #9/16 0.612 4632 1.000
NCAAM 2021-2022 0.776 #10/16 0.593 4445 0.900
NCAAM 2020-2021 0.748 #8/16 0.619 3016 0.500
NCAAM 2019-2020 0.763 #9/16 0.601 4300 0.728
NCAAM 2018-2019 0.779 #9/16 0.574 4656 0.946
NCAAM 2017-2018 0.768 #9/16 0.591 4290 0.833
NCAAM 2016-2017 0.782 #9/16 0.573 4268 0.929
NCAAM 2015-2016 0.776 #9/16 0.585 4277 0.600
NCAAM 2014-2015 0.776 #9/16 0.591 4260 0.840
NCAAM 2013-2014 0.772 #9/16 0.590 4367 0.417
NCAAM 2012-2013 0.785 #10/16 0.581 4349 0.900
NCAAM 2011-2012 0.799 #10/16 0.562 4500 0.800
NCAAM 2010-2011 0.783 #9/16 0.582 4488 0.600
NCAAM 2009-2010 0.796 #9/16 0.561 4479 1.000
NCAAM 2008-2009 0.779 #9/16 0.583 4483 0.694
NCAAM 2007-2008 0.781 #9/16 0.585 4478 0.719
NCAAM 2006-2007 0.775 #9/16 0.595 4342 0.875
NCAAM 2005-2006 0.776 #9/16 0.591 4309 1.000
NCAAM 2004-2005 0.775 #9/16 0.584 3964 0.778
NCAAM 2003-2004 0.780 #9/16 0.582 3911 0.600
NCAAM 2002-2003 0.776 #9/16 0.591 3929 0.417
NCAAM 2001-2002 0.774 #10/16 0.594 3897 0.667
NCAAM 2000-2001 0.779 #9/16 0.587 3825 0.917
NCAAM 1999-2000 0.786 #9/16 0.578 3840 0.833
NCAAM 1998-1999 0.775 #10/16 0.597 3712 0.667
NCAAM 1997-1998 0.788 #9/16 0.578 3735 0.750
NCAAM 1996-1997 0.773 #9/16 0.597 3600 0.333
NCAAM 1995-1996 0.776 #9/16 0.584 3534 0.833
NCAAM 1994-1995 0.785 #10/16 0.571 3501 0.250
NCAAM 1993-1994 0.783 #9/16 0.579 3517 0.500
NCAAM 1992-1993 0.791 #9/16 0.568 3539 0.500
NCAAM 1991-1992 0.795 #9/16 0.568 3587 0.500
NCAAM 1990-1991 0.786 #9/16 0.574 3470 0.250
NCAAM 1989-1990 0.788 #9/16 0.564 3426 -
NCAAM 1988-1989 0.787 #9/16 0.576 3423 0.667
NBA 2024-2025 0.711 #8/16 0.621 1117 0.500
NBA 2023-2024 0.712 #10/16 0.622 1171 0.500
NBA 2022-2023 0.638 #11/16 0.664 1162 -
NBA 2021-2022 0.688 #7/16 0.640 1150 -
NBA 2020-2021 0.687 #8/16 0.639 1012 -
NBA 2019-2020 0.685 #6/16 0.631 955 0.500
NBA 2018-2019 0.685 #11/16 0.640 1146 0.500
NBA 2017-2018 0.691 #13/16 0.634 1136 -
NBA 2016-2017 0.668 #10/16 0.647 1157 0.500
NBA 2015-2016 0.730 #12/16 0.604 1115 -
NBA 2014-2015 0.724 #10/16 0.612 1153 -
NBA 2013-2014 0.707 #10/16 0.625 1118 -
NBA 2012-2013 0.712 #10/16 0.621 1145 0.500
NBA 2011-2012 0.686 #11/16 0.633 859 -
NBA 2010-2011 0.726 #11/16 0.613 1118 -
NBA 2009-2010 0.720 #11/16 0.615 1140 0.500
NBA 2008-2009 0.738 #12/16 0.602 1118 0.500
NBA 2007-2008 0.720 #11/16 0.614 1160 0.500
NBA 2006-2007 0.657 #12/16 0.651 1139 -
NBA 2005-2006 0.666 #11/16 0.650 1164 -
NBA 2004-2005 0.698 #14/16 0.632 1144 0.500
NBA 2003-2004 0.688 #10/16 0.637 1120 -
NBA 2002-2003 0.678 #11/16 0.643 1084 0.500
NBA 2001-2002 0.672 #13/16 0.652 1096 -
NBA 2000-2001 0.709 #11/16 0.618 1069 -
NBA 1999-2000 0.709 #12/16 0.614 1090 0.500
NBA 1998-1999 0.708 #12/16 0.625 621 0.500
NBA 1997-1998 0.770 #10/16 0.576 1087 0.500
NBA 1996-1997 0.753 #12/16 0.588 1104 0.500
GLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.660 #1/16 0.656 352 0.625
GLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.649 #2/16 0.659 348 -
GLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.618 #4/16 0.680 18 0.618
GLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.612 #12/16 0.673 459 0.498
GLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.615 #12/16 0.670 583 0.500
GLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.576 #9/16 0.690 510 1.000
GLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.666 #2/16 0.652 487 0.500
GLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.663 #8/16 0.654 430 0.500
GLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.674 #12/16 0.653 394 1.000
GLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.611 #11/16 0.674 372 1.000
GLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.615 #15/16 0.675 350 -
GLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.589 #13/16 0.694 346 0.667
GLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.704 #9/16 0.634 352 0.500
GLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.707 #8/16 0.621 344 1.000
GLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.584 #15/16 0.685 337 1.000
GLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.698 #14/16 0.636 299 0.750
GLEAGUE 2006-2007 0.766 #11/16 0.579 252 -
GLEAGUE 2005-2006 0.749 #13/16 0.770 165 -
GLEAGUE 2004-2005 0.887 #11/16 1.580 119 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.638 #9/16 0.666 283 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.635 #13/16 0.671 254 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.668 #10/16 0.643 290 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.732 #9/16 0.609 216 0.768
EUROLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.738 #12/16 0.601 220 -
EUROLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.672 #9/16 0.647 220 0.250
EUROLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.669 #9/16 0.650 219 0.667
EUROLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.689 #10/16 0.635 202 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.757 #10/16 0.584 203 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.755 #9/16 0.592 205 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.754 #8/16 0.586 205 -
EUROLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.758 #11/16 0.580 152 0.000
EUROLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.706 #9/16 0.624 153 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.746 #10/16 0.585 152 -
EUROLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.756 #7/16 0.579 152 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.717 #12/16 0.658 195 1.000
EUROCUP 2022-2023 0.703 #13/16 0.623 155 -
EUROCUP 2021-2022 0.675 #10/16 0.650 149 -
EUROCUP 2020-2021 0.705 #10/16 0.623 140 -
EUROCUP 2019-2020 0.572 #12/16 0.706 120 0.733
EUROCUP 2018-2019 0.745 #11/16 0.600 150 0.500
EUROCUP 2017-2018 0.731 #12/16 0.606 136 -
EUROCUP 2016-2017 0.738 #10/16 0.596 114 -
EUROCUP 2015-2016 0.672 #10/16 0.661 226 0.500
EUROCUP 2014-2015 0.699 #11/16 0.632 226 -
EUROCUP 2013-2014 0.595 #15/16 0.716 262 -
EUROCUP 2012-2013 0.631 #2/16 0.676 93 -
EUROCUP 2011-2012 0.637 #15/16 0.658 92 0.667
EUROCUP 2010-2011 0.613 #12/16 0.687 93 0.750
EUROCUP 2009-2010 0.535 #15/16 0.733 92 0.667
EUROCUP 2008-2009 0.702 #9/16 0.628 102 0.500
EUROCUP 2007-2008 0.732 #10/16 0.664 245 0.938

Output Coverage

Stored site-output rows for this model.

League Season Rows
WNBA 2026 15
WNBA 2025 13
WNBA 2024 12
WNBA 2023 12
WNBA 2022 12
WNBA 2021 12
WNBA 2020 12
WNBA 2019 12
WNBA 2018 12
WNBA 2017 12
WNBA 2016 12
WNBA 2015 12
WNBA 2014 12
WNBA 2013 12
WNBA 2012 12
WNBA 2011 12
WNBA 2010 12
WNBA 2009 13
WNBA 2008 14
WNBA 2007 13
WNBA 2006 14
WNBA 2005 13
WNBA 2004 13
WNBA 2003 14
NCAAWD3 2024-2025 418
NCAAWD3 2023-2024 423
NCAAWD3 2022-2023 358
NCAAWD3 2019-2020 347
NCAAWD2 2024-2025 293
NCAAWD2 2023-2024 290
NCAAWD2 2022-2023 292
NCAAWD2 2019-2020 292
NCAAWD2 2018-2019 291
NCAAWD2 2016-2017 294
NCAAW 2026-2027 363
NCAAW 2025-2026 363
NCAAW 2024-2025 362
NCAAW 2023-2024 360
NCAAW 2022-2023 361
NCAAW 2021-2022 356
NCAAW 2020-2021 335
NCAAW 2019-2020 351
NCAAW 2018-2019 351
NCAAW 2017-2018 349
NCAAW 2016-2017 349
NCAAW 2015-2016 349
NCAAW 2014-2015 349
NCAAW 2013-2014 349
NCAAW 2012-2013 345
NCAAW 2011-2012 343
NCAAW 2010-2011 343
NCAAW 2009-2010 345
NCAAW 2008-2009 345
NCAAW 2007-2008 339
NCAAW 2006-2007 335
NCAAW 2005-2006 332
NCAAW 2004-2005 328
NCAAMD3 2024-2025 402
NCAAMD3 2023-2024 405
NCAAMD3 2022-2023 403
NCAAMD3 2019-2020 402
NCAAMD3 2018-2019 398
NCAAMD3 2016-2017 401
NCAAMD2 2024-2025 295
NCAAMD2 2023-2024 297
NCAAMD2 2022-2023 296
NCAAMD2 2019-2020 303
NCAAMD2 2018-2019 303
NCAAMD2 2016-2017 307
NCAAM 2026-2027 365
NCAAM 2025-2026 365
NCAAM 2024-2025 364
NCAAM 2023-2024 362
NCAAM 2022-2023 363
NCAAM 2021-2022 358
NCAAM 2020-2021 344
NCAAM 2019-2020 353
NCAAM 2018-2019 353
NCAAM 2017-2018 351
NCAAM 2016-2017 351
NCAAM 2015-2016 351
NCAAM 2014-2015 351
NCAAM 2013-2014 351
NCAAM 2012-2013 347
NCAAM 2011-2012 345
NCAAM 2010-2011 345
NCAAM 2009-2010 347
NCAAM 2008-2009 347
NCAAM 2007-2008 341
NCAAM 2006-2007 336
NCAAM 2005-2006 334
NCAAM 2004-2005 326
NBA 2024-2025 30
NBA 2023-2024 30
NBA 2022-2023 30
NBA 2021-2022 30
NBA 2020-2021 30
NBA 2019-2020 30
NBA 2018-2019 30
NBA 2017-2018 30
NBA 2016-2017 30
NBA 2015-2016 30
NBA 2014-2015 30
NBA 2013-2014 30
NBA 2012-2013 30
NBA 2011-2012 30
NBA 2010-2011 30
NBA 2009-2010 30
NBA 2008-2009 30
NBA 2007-2008 30
NBA 2006-2007 30
NBA 2005-2006 30
NBA 2004-2005 30
NBA 2003-2004 29
NBA 2002-2003 29
NBA 2001-2002 29
NBA 2000-2001 29
NBA 1999-2000 29
NBA 1998-1999 29
NBA 1997-1998 29
NBA 1996-1997 29
GLEAGUE 2024-2025 31
GLEAGUE 2023-2024 31
GLEAGUE 2022-2023 30
GLEAGUE 2021-2022 28
GLEAGUE 2020-2021 18
GLEAGUE 2019-2020 28
GLEAGUE 2018-2019 27
GLEAGUE 2017-2018 26
GLEAGUE 2016-2017 22
GLEAGUE 2015-2016 19
GLEAGUE 2014-2015 18
GLEAGUE 2013-2014 17
GLEAGUE 2012-2013 16
GLEAGUE 2011-2012 16
GLEAGUE 2010-2011 16
GLEAGUE 2009-2010 16
GLEAGUE 2008-2009 16
GLEAGUE 2007-2008 14
GLEAGUE 2006-2007 12
GLEAGUE 2005-2006 8
GLEAGUE 2004-2005 6
EUROLEAGUE 2024-2025 18
EUROLEAGUE 2023-2024 18
EUROLEAGUE 2022-2023 18
EUROLEAGUE 2021-2022 18
EUROLEAGUE 2020-2021 18
EUROLEAGUE 2019-2020 18
EUROLEAGUE 2018-2019 16
EUROLEAGUE 2017-2018 16
EUROLEAGUE 2016-2017 16
EUROLEAGUE 2015-2016 24
EUROLEAGUE 2014-2015 24
EUROLEAGUE 2013-2014 24
EUROLEAGUE 2012-2013 24
EUROLEAGUE 2011-2012 24
EUROLEAGUE 2010-2011 24
EUROLEAGUE 2009-2010 24
EUROLEAGUE 2008-2009 24
EUROLEAGUE 2007-2008 24
EUROCUP 2024-2025 20
EUROCUP 2023-2024 20
EUROCUP 2022-2023 20
EUROCUP 2021-2022 20
EUROCUP 2020-2021 24
EUROCUP 2019-2020 24
EUROCUP 2018-2019 24
EUROCUP 2017-2018 24
EUROCUP 2016-2017 20
EUROCUP 2015-2016 44
EUROCUP 2014-2015 44
EUROCUP 2013-2014 56
EUROCUP 2012-2013 32
EUROCUP 2011-2012 32
EUROCUP 2010-2011 32
EUROCUP 2009-2010 32
EUROCUP 2008-2009 32
EUROCUP 2007-2008 54