Adjusted Efficiency
Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | PythAdj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Best current in-repo adjusted-efficiency baseline: adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, opponent correction, and pythagorean-style conversion back to win strength.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.943 (#3) · 1454 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | - · 0 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | - · 0 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAWD3 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 0.954 | #1 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Margin | 0.954 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.943 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Log Adjusted | 0.942 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Elo | 0.909 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.894 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Pythagorean | 0.881 | #7 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Home Team Baseline | 0.555 | #8 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Adjusted Efficiency. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.650 | #11 | 0.690 | #14 | 21 | 0 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.943 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.799 | #7 | 0.562 | #13 | 0.637 | #11 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.871 | #3 | 0.596 | #8 | 0.557 | #9 | 22 | 3 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.915 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.799 | #4 | 0.584 | #13 | 0.592 | #8 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.815 | #3 | 0.538 | #2 | 0.586 | #7 | 22 | 1 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.870 | #1 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.760 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.746 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 0.757 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 0.716 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 0.689 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.794 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.736 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 0.751 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 0.696 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.774 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 0.715 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 0.691 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.716 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.680 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 0.655 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 0.661 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 0.652 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 0.607 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.658 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.647 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 0.651 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.752 | #5 | 0.608 | #12 | 0.625 | #11 | 26 | 1 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.541 | #4 | 0.648 | #2 | 0.683 | #10 | 22 | 1 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 763 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 763 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 772 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 772 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 110 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 797 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 797 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 770 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 770 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 107 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 113 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 116 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 111 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 113 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 111 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 116 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 115 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 118 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 118 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 28 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 18 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 20 |