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Team model

Points Off/Def

Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters.

Status implemented Short Name PtsOD
Rating Style probability Where Shown teams rankings, team pages, model performance

Model Card

Model of the form points_i = intercept + off_i + def_j + beta_home. This is the two-parameter team baseline without pace adjustment.

Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.

Output Coverage

Stored site-output rows for this model.

League Season Rows
WNBA 2025 17
NCAAWD3 2025-2026 763
NCAAWD3 2024-2025 763
NCAAWD2 2025-2026 772
NCAAWD2 2024-2025 772
NCAAW 2025-2026 363
NCAAW 2024-2025 362
NCAAMD3 2025-2026 797
NCAAMD3 2024-2025 797
NCAAMD2 2025-2026 770
NCAAMD2 2024-2025 770
NCAAM 2025-2026 365
NCAAM 2024-2025 364
NBA 2025-2026 28
NBA 2024-2025 30
NBA 2023-2024 30
NBA 2022-2023 30
NBA 2021-2022 30
NBA 2020-2021 30
NBA 2019-2020 30
GLEAGUE 2025-2026 31
GLEAGUE 2024-2025 31
EUROLEAGUE 2025-2026 20
EUROCUP 2025-2026 20
EUROCUP 2020-2021 24